Morning Commentary
It may seem investors are getting cocky, but after two strong months in a row with widening participation, it makes sense investors are feeling better.
Statement Session
That Friday session was remarkable, but it was legit. As I mentioned in the market commentary, the jobs report was nowhere near as ‘strong’ as the chorus exclaimed. David Rosenberg is a perennial grouch, but his work is great, and he points out the folly of the jobs report.
The establishment survey sees the nation shedding jobs, but jobs growth is well below the pre-pandemic trend, even with a flawed headline report.
The market continues to be led by Materials (XLB) and Industrials (XLI) with safe havens diverging, sending Consumer Staples (XLP) higher and Utilities (XLU) lower.
The S&P 500 pierced the 200-day moving average during the week and held on Friday – very encouraging.
How Wise is the Canary
Bonds are said to be the canary in the coal mine among financial assets. So, when we see bond yields start to come down as much as they have, what are we to think?
Maybe the bond market is also an owl.
If this move lower continues, look for the stock market rally to pick up steam and even get the growth names back in the mix.
Portfolio Approach
There are no sector weighting changes in our Hotline Model Portfolio this morning.
Today’s Session
Equity futures have been under pressure all morning even as there is more evidence Friday’s jobs report was not as strong as reported in part because it was not strong.
Commentators have moved on so the algorithms have no idea what’s really going on. Meanwhile, waiting on more data but also I think technical analysis takes center stage with move through 4,100.
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7/18/2025 1:14 PM | Consumer Tariff Worries Subside |
7/18/2025 9:45 AM | America is in Play |
7/17/2025 1:27 PM | Extreme Greed Resumes |
7/17/2025 10:15 AM | A Fundamental Move |
7/16/2025 1:39 PM | Market Gyrations |
7/16/2025 9:44 AM | THE MAG ONE (NVDA) |
7/15/2025 1:35 PM | Semis Rise & Banks Slide |
7/15/2025 10:13 AM | THE CURIOUS CASE |
7/14/2025 1:32 PM | Decisive Week |
7/14/2025 9:32 AM | GET READY! |
7/11/2025 1:45 PM | Facing Pressure |
7/11/2025 9:48 AM | CLEAR FOR TAKEOFF |
7/10/2025 1:53 PM | Small Caps Rally |
7/10/2025 9:56 AM | ENOUGH ZEN TO SHARE |
7/9/2025 1:32 PM | NVDA New Milestone |
7/9/2025 9:46 AM | PASSING THE BATON |
7/8/2025 1:33 PM | Seesaw Session |
7/8/2025 9:55 AM | MORE SUMMER BLAHS THAN FEAR OF MYANMAR'S TARIFF |
7/7/2025 1:27 PM | Trade Talks and Profit Taking |
7/7/2025 9:51 AM | LOVING MOOD |
7/3/2025 9:45 AM | NICE & STEADY AS SEMIS CONTINUE TO CHIP IN |
7/2/2025 1:44 PM | Materials' Strength Continues |
7/2/2025 9:38 AM | BARNBURNER |
7/1/2025 1:29 PM | Rotation |
7/1/2025 9:45 AM | FEAR OF MISSING OUT IS CREEPING IN |
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