It may seem investors are getting cocky, but after two strong months in a row with widening participation, it makes sense investors are feeling better.
That Friday session was remarkable, but it was legit. As I mentioned in the market commentary, the jobs report was nowhere near as ‘strong’ as the chorus exclaimed. David Rosenberg is a perennial grouch, but his work is great, and he points out the folly of the jobs report.
The establishment survey sees the nation shedding jobs, but jobs growth is well below the pre-pandemic trend, even with a flawed headline report.
The market continues to be led by Materials (XLB) and Industrials (XLI) with safe havens diverging, sending Consumer Staples (XLP) higher and Utilities (XLU) lower.
The S&P 500 pierced the 200-day moving average during the week and held on Friday – very encouraging.
How Wise is the Canary
Bonds are said to be the canary in the coal mine among financial assets. So, when we see bond yields start to come down as much as they have, what are we to think?
Maybe the bond market is also an owl.
If this move lower continues, look for the stock market rally to pick up steam and even get the growth names back in the mix.
There are no sector weighting changes in our Hotline Model Portfolio this morning.
Equity futures have been under pressure all morning even as there is more evidence Friday’s jobs report was not as strong as reported in part because it was not strong.
Commentators have moved on so the algorithms have no idea what’s really going on. Meanwhile, waiting on more data but also I think technical analysis takes center stage with move through 4,100.
|3/31/2023 1:37 PM||Leaving the Station|
|3/31/2023 9:37 AM||BRACING FOR INFLATION|
|3/30/2023 1:54 PM||Losing Some Steam|
|3/30/2023 9:36 AM||A FUNNY WAY OF BEING AFRAID|
|3/29/2023 1:37 PM||Bottom Fishers|
|3/29/2023 9:41 AM||TOO CALM AND COMPLACENT?|
|3/28/2023 1:31 PM||No Fireworks|
|3/28/2023 9:47 AM||TIME MACHINE RALLY|
|3/27/2023 1:34 PM||Holding Pattern|
|3/27/2023 9:59 AM||SUDDENLY, BULLISH IS WHERE ITíS AT|
|3/24/2023 1:25 PM||Magical|
|3/24/2023 10:14 AM||YELLENíS TWO-STEP TRIPS UP THE MARKET|
|3/23/2023 1:14 PM||Embarrassing Snafu|
|3/23/2023 9:37 AM||GOVERNMENT OFFICIALS PROTESTING TOO MUCH ††|
|3/22/2023 1:23 PM||All Quiet|
|3/22/2023 9:42 AM||THE MOMENT OF TRUTH #1,309|
|3/21/2023 1:12 PM||Lots of Questions|
|3/21/2023 9:49 AM||WHATíS INSIDE POWELLíS CRYSTAL BALL?|
|3/20/2023 1:58 PM||All Over the Place|
|3/20/2023 9:36 AM||FED COUNTDOWN BEGINS †|
|3/17/2023 1:45 PM||Banks Remain Vulnerable|
|3/17/2023 9:54 AM||FED VS THE FED (ITíS COMPLICATED)|
|3/16/2023 1:27 PM||Another Crazy Day|
|3/16/2023 9:53 AM||THRILL RIDE|
|3/15/2023 1:43 PM||Economic Data Overshadowed|
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