It’s turning out to be the word of the week: Crescendo.

Noun

1. The loudest point reached in a gradually increasing sound.

                   "The port engine's sound rose to a crescendo"

       2.  The highest point reached in a progressive increase of intensity.

                   "The hysteria reached a crescendo around the spring festival

Adverb

1. With a gradual increase in loudness.

                   "In the upper three parts there are groups of longer notes played crescendo"

       2.  Gradually increasing in loudness.

                   "a short crescendo kettledrum roll"

Verb

1. Increase in loudness or intensity.

                   "The reluctant cheers began to crescendo"

Each day brings more intensity. And each session seems to close at the low of the day, saved only by the closing bell. This crescendo has been a combination of panic and frustration coupled with stop losses and algorithms. Toss in confusion in the world of crypto and post-election blahs, and each day sets up as one filled with sound and fury that gets louder and more furious into the closing bell.

Heat Map

Nothing to see here, folks – in fact, most ophthalmologists warn you not to gaze at the tables (below) for longer than 30 seconds without blinking.

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Meta (META) found the formula to a green session – lay off a chunk of workers. This looks like capitulation.

Uncorrelated, My Foot:

• S&P 500 (SPX) -2.08%
• Nasdaq Composite (IXIC) -2.48%
• Russell 2000 (RUT) -2.68%
• Dow Jones Industrial (DJI) -1.95%
• West Texas Intermediate (WTI) -3.46%
• Bitcoin (BTC) -14.12%
• Ethereum (ETH) -16.67%

Undoubtedly, the disarray in crypto is affecting the stock market. To what extent is unclear, but stocks got noticeably weaker when Binance walked away from FTX Trading. The implication is there were serious shenanigans at FTX, perhaps even illegal. 

CPI Watch

This monthly read on inflation has leapfrogged the jobs report as the most important of any given month. Of the ten reports this year, the S&P 500 has been down eight times. Note: the market rallied 2.60% last time, even though 8.2% was higher than the consensus of 8.1%. Check out the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) trends below, and it’s obvious that at some point, there will be a big positive surprise.

Talking Fed Alert

My goodness, look how many Fed folks are yapping today.  A lot of talk about the economy and even one on digital currencies. Hopefully, they will provide color on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report and the notion they must destroy the economy to save it.  

Today’s Session

The CPI report came in below consensus in every key category sparking a monster move equity move.

Actual versus Consensus

Coming into the number, the CME Fed Watch terminal rate has now pulled back to 4.75-5.00.

The flashing red flag is real hourly and weekly wages.  I wonder if the Fed will ever acknowledge (the media and administration will not) that?

Initial jobless claims are rising, and continuing claims have certainly gotten the Fed’s attention – it is pointing squarely at recession.

Comments

Yesterday, your friend, Stuart Varney had a segment on USF Medical Center doing work on voice recognition for cancer. I am trying to get a hold of him to tell him a company already exists that does exactly that. It is currently private but holds seven patents on the technology. They have an app on line. If either of you want additional information, please contact me. Thank,s. Great show. Best on business on tv. Wayne F Carr on 11/10/2022 9:59:32 AM

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