Charles Payne's Market Commentary

Afternoon Note

Sobering Reality

By Charles Payne, CEO & Principal Analyst
7/6/2021 1:15 PM

It’s tough sledding in the market today, and even growth names that have exhibited resolve are starting to slip. I think there are a number of issues at play. The sobering reality maybe the economy is not as strong as expected. This is not a surprise to me, as the data has been clear.

Bond yields and the yield curve are both suggesting we should stop talking about transitory inflation and focus on flattening economic growth.

Take a look at this morning's ISM Services report, which was a big miss.

June ISM Services	June	May
Headline	60.1	64.0
Business Activity	60.4	66.2
New Orders	62.1	63.9
Prices	79.5	80.6
Employment	49.3	55.3

I think it’s best not to panic, because there are other issues that have nothing to do with fundamentals, including:

Anxiety over the next catalyst
Efforts to bring back harsh economic and personal freedom restrictions
Bracing for earning season - which will be amazing
Bracing for tomorrow's FOMC minutes

Comments

Hi Charles,

I very much enjoy listening to your show and overall positivity. You are one of the few if only that calls out the man made chasm between reality pof the economy , markets, etc and what the far left doomsayers would like America to believe.

Let me say that I see that the cost of living today and especially the extra cost to the average middle and lower income American is not being recorded and reported. The cost of the same basket of grcoeries from 2019 has gone up by my estimate at least $100/mo. Add onto trhat the extra cost of gas for 2 drivers in a family filling up monthly is close to another $100. Costs of everything will continue to rise until people start going back to work and production levels get back to meeting demand which most likely wont be until after this winter. Add in extra cost of heating oil and gas and there's another $100/month. Discretionary spending at restaurants will probably decline and spending on generic everything at the store will increase as a lot of people will get tired of paying $8 for a tube of Crest and $6 for a small box of Cherrios.

Is there a good index to follow that tracks true cost of living on month to month basis other than the CPI?

Chris Weir on 7/6/2021 5:21:10 PM

I agree that the reality is the current economic policies are and will hurt the economy in the long run. This won’t be short term or transitory unless things change.

Glenn gotshall on 7/6/2021 7:14:55 PM

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