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Afternoon Note

Focused on Coronavirus

By Charles Payne, CEO & Principal Analyst
1/31/2020 1:40 PM

New York Health Commissioner denying earlier report from NY Daily News about a case of coronavirus in NYC; says "There are still zero confirmed cases" in NYC

I know the headlines are focused on the coronavirus, but I actually wonder if there is something else with a greater chance to have a more deleterious impact on the stock market.  On that note, there is obvious angst over China’s market opening on Monday.  After being closed for a week for the Luna New Year, Chinese equities start trading right at halftime for the Super Bowl, and they are expected to be down sharply.

Major China equity indices, including Shanghai (see chart) and Shenzhen, peaked in 2015 and have been declining ever since, making a series of lower highs.   There is no doubt China’s GDP will be hammered, perhaps even more than the 5.4% seen by Goldman (down from their earlier estimate of 5.9%), and that could even hasten the move lower.  At some point, their market will firm before the economy does.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/HIlKeLX1/

 

According to CDC:

CDC quarantines Wuhan passengers in California under federal order

U.S. health officials have quarantined 195 Americans evacuated from Wuhan, China, the epicenter of the coronavirus outbreak, taking the rare step of issuing a mandatory order to help contain the disease, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said Friday.

“If we take strong measures now, we may be able to blunt the impact on the United States,” said Dr. Nancy Messonnier, director of the National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases.

Messonnier said the CDC has 20 staff on hand to monitor their health. If any of the passengers begin to exhibit symptoms, they will be moved to a hospital, she said.

U.S. health officials confirmed Thursday the nation’s first person-to-person transmission of the virus — the husband of a Chicago woman who brought the infection back from Wuhan, China, the epicenter of the outbreak. Public health officials also said they were monitoring 21 patients in Illinois for possible infections.

For our market, it’s hard to believe anyone will step up to the plate in the face of all the unknowns, which leaves the last couple hours of trading more vulnerable.  On that note, I’m still confident about the consumer driven market.  But from time to time, markets have to be tested.

I’m seeing stocks I wish I was in coming back to levels where I can get in, so I’m thrilled about that, but I also want to see major indices hold their respective 50 day moving averages.

Have a great weekend and enjoy the Super Bowl LIV.


 

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