Afternoon Note
I mentioned this morning, once the 50-day fails, it’s not uncommon to see tests of the 200-day moving average, although it normally doesn’t happen in a single session. But right now, machines and fear have taken over. I don’t think professional investors are panicking.
Key Moving Averages |
Dow |
NASDAQ |
S&P 500 |
50 Day |
26,485 |
8,000 |
2,932 |
200 Day |
25,556 |
7,551 |
2,790 |
That said, saber rattling continues to intensify, and one has to wonder about any backchannel discussions.
Speaking of which, I have to believe Donald Trump has spoken with Jay Powell, and maybe, at some point, we could get news or developments from both. From the Fed’s point of view, we got yet another report that came in below consensus. In addition to ISM Services missing, the Prices component came in lower than expected (seven of eight times 2019) bolstering worries of deflation.
Right now, there is no way to game the bottom. On the upside, I’m looking at levels where rebounds fizzled.
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10/13/2025 1:42 PM | Fears Eased |
10/13/2025 9:49 AM | ROUGH BUT NOT HELLISH |
10/10/2025 1:48 PM | Chinese Trade Negotiations Reignite |
10/10/2025 10:05 AM | BIRTHDAY BREAK |
10/9/2025 1:25 PM | Shutdown Continues |
10/9/2025 9:53 AM | DOOM PORN DOESN’T DISTRACT INVESTORS |
10/8/2025 1:14 PM | FOMC Minutes in Focus |
10/8/2025 9:45 AM | DIFFERENT TYPES OF BOTTOM FISHING |
10/7/2025 1:34 PM | Taking a Breather |
10/7/2025 9:55 AM | LOTS OF CHASING BUT SOME BOTTOM FISHING TOO |
10/6/2025 1:36 PM | AMD deal powers Semiconductors |
10/6/2025 9:42 AM | ROTATION HAS BEGUN |
10/3/2025 1:30 PM | Midday Air Pocket |
10/3/2025 9:33 AM | MUSCLE MEMORY & AI FRENZY |
10/2/2025 1:34 PM | Searching for Direction |
10/2/2025 9:47 AM | A HEALTHY ROTATION |
10/1/2025 1:29 PM | Shutdown Resolve |
10/1/2025 9:45 AM | FINTECH MAKES ITS MOVE |
9/30/2025 1:47 PM | Shutdown Clock Ticks |
9/30/2025 9:52 AM | THANK YOU, SEPTEMBER |
9/29/2025 1:43 PM | Technology Turning Back Online |
9/29/2025 9:43 AM | Buy the Dip & March of the Federal Reserve Talking Heads |
9/26/2025 1:31 PM | Modest Gains |
9/26/2025 9:39 AM | GOOD NEWS HITS HARD |
9/25/2025 1:42 PM | Consolidation Phase |
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