Afternoon Note
The Market
The knee-jerk bounce to the knee-jerk selloff has settled the market in a tight range today as investors are waiting on the latest on headline events and assessing other elements of the market. Semiconductor names have rebounded, but the recent selling also underscores the fact maybe chip names rallied too far, too fast and needed to pullback.
Technically, the pullback has been a perfect 50% retracement of the rally from December 24, holding right at the 50-day moving average.
SMH
Overall, the market isn’t showing me much either way. It feels like investors are marking time, as the number of unresolved issues continue to mount.
Housing
Existing home sales came in below estimates, as weakness at the lower end of the market continues to be the central issue.
Prices Soar
Overall prices continue to move higher +3.6% to $267,300 even as overall sales continue to slump, which points to a chronic supply shortage. Overall sales have been ranged-bound for a couple of years and significantly below levels achieved during the housing boom.
While there are anecdotal signs SALT states are struggling with new tax laws woes, over $750,000 are moving, in fact soaring in the Northeast and South.
Price Trends |
$0 - $100K |
$100K-250K |
$250K-500K |
$500K-750 |
$750K-1M |
$1M + |
NE |
-8.6% |
0.0% |
+7.7% |
+13.0% |
+10.8% |
+7.5% |
MW |
-8,8% |
-2.2% |
+3.2% |
+4.2% |
+6.0% |
+9.6% |
South |
-10.9% |
+2.5% |
+11.9% |
+9.8% |
+17.5% |
+2.7% |
West |
-25.4% |
-15.9% |
+2.8% |
+4.7% |
+1.0% |
-1.4% |
U.S. |
-10.0% |
-1.0% |
+7.3% |
+7.4% |
+6.7% |
+0.9% |
Pro Tip
The National Association of Realtors chief economist has a suggestion for millennials stuck with student debt issues:
“Given the record high job openings in the construction sector, some may want to take a gap year to work there and save, and thereby lessen the student debt burden.”
Tweet |
7/18/2025 1:14 PM | Consumer Tariff Worries Subside |
7/18/2025 9:45 AM | America is in Play |
7/17/2025 1:27 PM | Extreme Greed Resumes |
7/17/2025 10:15 AM | A Fundamental Move |
7/16/2025 1:39 PM | Market Gyrations |
7/16/2025 9:44 AM | THE MAG ONE (NVDA) |
7/15/2025 1:35 PM | Semis Rise & Banks Slide |
7/15/2025 10:13 AM | THE CURIOUS CASE |
7/14/2025 1:32 PM | Decisive Week |
7/14/2025 9:32 AM | GET READY! |
7/11/2025 1:45 PM | Facing Pressure |
7/11/2025 9:48 AM | CLEAR FOR TAKEOFF |
7/10/2025 1:53 PM | Small Caps Rally |
7/10/2025 9:56 AM | ENOUGH ZEN TO SHARE |
7/9/2025 1:32 PM | NVDA New Milestone |
7/9/2025 9:46 AM | PASSING THE BATON |
7/8/2025 1:33 PM | Seesaw Session |
7/8/2025 9:55 AM | MORE SUMMER BLAHS THAN FEAR OF MYANMAR'S TARIFF |
7/7/2025 1:27 PM | Trade Talks and Profit Taking |
7/7/2025 9:51 AM | LOVING MOOD |
7/3/2025 9:45 AM | NICE & STEADY AS SEMIS CONTINUE TO CHIP IN |
7/2/2025 1:44 PM | Materials' Strength Continues |
7/2/2025 9:38 AM | BARNBURNER |
7/1/2025 1:29 PM | Rotation |
7/1/2025 9:45 AM | FEAR OF MISSING OUT IS CREEPING IN |
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