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Morning Commentary

Beyond Big Tech

By Charles Payne, CEO & Principal Analyst
9/6/2018 9:35 AM

It was a tough day for the NASDAQ on Wednesday, as big tech came under heavy fire on Capitol Hill and from each other. It seems as if each day is greeted with news of one big tech name entering some other company’s turf. This week, Amazon is going after the online ad business of Facebook and Google. Yesterday, Apple (AAPL) bolstered its online content investment, sending shares of Netflix (NFLX) lower.

The great news is the broad market didn’t fall apart without big tech. However, a lot of the buying was defensive or value investing, which propelled utilities, real estate, and consumer staples. I have been asking everyone to round out their portfolio with exposure to certain consumer staples as tech becomes more selective.

S&P 500 Index

-0.28%

Communication Services (XLC)

-1.30%

Consumer Discretionary (XLY)

-1.08%

Consumer Staples (XLP)

+1.12%

Energy (XLE)

-0.13%

Financials (XLF)

+0.07%

Health Care (XLV)

+0.33%

Industrials (XLI)

+0.70%

Materials (XLB)

+0.66%

Real Estate (XLRE)

+0.63%

Technology (XLK)

-1.25%

Utilities (XLU)

+1.40%

 

In addition to names such as J.M. Smucker Co. (SJM), there was a nice action in Materials (XLB) and Industrials (XLI), led by the rails. Within the tech sector, semiconductors looked compelling, which isn’t the first time we’ve seen a rotation from big tech into other niches in the sector.

Keep on Trucking

The big news came out of one of the nation’s largest Old Dominion Freight Line (ODFL), which updated shareholders on progress in the current quarter:

Greg C. Gantt, President and Chief Executive Officer of Old Dominion, commented:

Our revenue increased more than 20% for each of the first two months of the third quarter, due to sustained strength in the domestic economy and our continued ability to win market share by delivering superior service at a fair price.

Customer demand for our service offerings remains strong, and we believe our service center network capacity will remain sufficient to support the anticipated growth of our business for the foreseeable future. We intend to continue to reinvest in our business to ensure that we have the necessary equipment, facilities and people to support our long-term strategic initiatives, which we believe will continue to increase shareholder value.

Shares of ODFL are surging 2.9% on the day, and in the process, are helping to lift the overall Dow Jones Transportation Index (DJT) near its all-time high point.

Navigating Investing Against Bias News & Headlines

I got this email yesterday and offered a reply:

Charles Payne,  

I think the market isn't going higher because people are having a hard time trusting their money to what really are petulant children. Tariff this and that. That's the only thing that matters, but it isn't. It's all the "market" cares about. Wall St is the swamp.

-From Tim

Dear Tim,

I'm glad you brought this up...please don't confuse the market with market commentators. Three of the four biggest hits to the stock market in 2018 happened in response to fears of Fed policies with the largest tariff-related, down on March 22, resulting in the market opening at the low of the year on March 23. Since then, the market has been in a very strong stealth rally - up five straight months.

Please don't let commentators even those that are genuine in their critique of any government policy and actions to dictate your investments and financial future. -CP

I’m sorry to say so much about the media, including the financial media who wear their hatred for President Trump on their collective sleeve. It has clouded coverage of news, trends, and facts to the point where I believe it has hurt individual investors. I was often critical of President Obama, but I begged people to buy the stock market, which saw its second biggest sell-off in history and presented a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity.

When the economy slows, or the market gets too lofty, I will sound the alarm. Right now, the economy is reemerging in ways many people wrote off a long time ago.

You really have to be smart and parse an opinion from facts with every report, article, or television segment. When stories feature anonymous sources, making incendiary claims become the norm, beware. 

Today’s Session

The market continues to ignore the noise from the latest disgruntled anonymous worker or “top official” in the Trump White House to the latest warning of China retaliation on the next round of US-imposed tariffs. 

Boeing (BA) acts good and Alibaba (BABA) acts good pre-open. 

There is a general anxiety to be sure, but it looks like the market will focus on fundamentals. 

Trade Deficit & GDP

The deficit got wider with China and continues to harm our own economic outlook.  The day after a monster increase in GDP, forecast estimates of growth eased on that big trade deficit news.

We got the ADP jobs report his morning, which came in below consensus, but it had strong highlights we’ll share in the afternoon note.


Comments
Why is so much attention and even credibility given to the New York Times "bombshell" article about a "top ranked administration insider" who makes incredulous claims about the President when the left and the NYT's are not above lieing and being highly deceptive? The left and the leftist media are known to be masters of deceipt! Who says this so called article is not a trumped up lie? Do we actually expect to get truth from liers and deceivers and these masters of deceipt with malicious inclinations? The left have no character, no interest in truth, usually no ethics and even no morals. So why should they be given an hearing? Why aren't sickening, ruthless and vicious communists like Patrick Leahey and others of his ilk, which appear to be many, run out of town?

Bill Baumner on 9/6/2018 10:11:16 AM
I agree with Bill's comments. The deception that abounds in DC (as well as NYC) promulgates the spreading of fictitious stories. One only needs to remember the infamous dossier to realize the left will stop at nothing to destroy President Trump and overturn a legitimate election.

Philip Morris on 9/6/2018 10:51:03 AM
the President has been running the market up and down all summer with tarriff talk.

seems like a fine money making opportunity.



gw on 9/6/2018 11:02:03 AM
To begin with, I also agree with Bill. Having served our nation for over half of my life against its enemies, which foremost was the Soviet Union, It never ceases to amaze me how these "Socialists, Marxists and Communists" inside our government think they can 'TRASH' our nation and it's economy but the after effects won't touch them. Talk about lack of critical thinking. Charles, again I refer to you as a "voice crying in the wilderness". After 2007/08 my wife and I were terrified of re-entering the market. But you reminded me that the downturn was a "singular" event of great opportunity. We dove in with a mix of ETF's and stocks. We've done well. With God's help and your encouragement from your show Fox Business we saw a clear path. We both thank you for that brother.

Scott Gillespie on 9/6/2018 8:50:50 PM
 

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