It was an interesting session with ebbs and flows that could have finished higher or lower. The leading sectors witnessed a defensive tone in the market. Seeing several big Technology (XLK) names give up early gains was also interesting. In a way, that makes yesterday’s session more impressive.

Don’t fear the S&P 500 Death Cross performance.

The Fed Will Come to the Rescue

I listen to Fed Jay Powell very closely, and I’m sure he made intense calculations before resurrecting the word ‘transitory.’ Sure, he had to acknowledge the breadth of reciprocal tariffs the last time he spoke.  But he is still ‘Team Transitory’ and he’s got help.

With Waller on the team, the Fed could become more accommodative much sooner than members have suggested.

Today’s Session

At some point data will come in to fit the narrative of the media and naysayers. It still hasn’t happened and, I suspect, it will never be as bad as the fearmongers say.

Those experts are once again dismissing hard data, this time on import prices.

Troubling Soft Data

The Empire Fed Manufacturing Survey came in below consensus as expectations plunged.

Higher prices are red flags but they are not going to be sustainable, in my opinion.