Back-to-back gains seem like a cause for celebration these days. Growth took precedence over quality yesterday.

Mag Seven Sighting

The “Mag Seven” moved higher without any oomph or fanfare.

Two good days, but the market remains mired in ‘Extreme Fear.”

GDP Pothole

The Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimate for the first quarter continues to careen like an old pickup truck that just hit an infamous NYC pothole. It has now skidded to -3.7% a mile from the +3.9% high point.

The most significant difference now is negative consumer spending and sharp declines in equipment and non-residential structures.

Liberation Day

It's finally here. Later today, President Trump will give an address from the Rose Garden to outline the breadth of his tariff regime.

 

Today's Session
The ADP jobs report reached 155,000, significantly above the consensus estimate of 115,000. The good news is that all establishment sizes saw increases.  I'm not sure what this means for the Bureau of Labor Statistics number on Friday, but this is good news, although invisible in the cloud of other issues. 

More Certainty

Outside of “tariffs,” the word most associated with pressure on the stock market has been “uncertainty.”

That goes away today.

Yesterday, Scott Bessent said tariffs will not go up after the initial announcement.

Businesses and investors may not like what they hear but there will no excuse to feign confusion.  Ultimately, businesses must adjust to macro conditions – supposedly that’s why CEOs earn millions of dollars.

Hang on!

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