Morning Commentary
The market limped into the weekend, with investors retreating into traditional defensive sectors and Financials (XLF), which got the benefit of the doubt after the election.
Meanwhile, large-cap growth continued its rugged retreat, although there were few places to hide.
Key Technical Levels
The S&P 500 (SPX) trades in a solid upward channel with crucial support at the 50-day moving average.
If the index could not hold, it would be vulnerable to $5411, but it's hard to see that happening.
I’m spying on the Volatility Index (VIX) to signal increased ‘fear’ as the emotional roller coaster leads to huge individual stock moves and greater overall volatility.
Geopolitical Heat
The war is heating up as North Korean troops have joined Russia’s most intense assaults in months, and now President Biden has given Ukraine the okay to use U.S. weapons more aggressively.
There will be lots of Fed speak this week, and Nvidia (NVDA) earnings mean this could be a wild week.
Today’s Session
There is encouraging action before the opening bell in large cap tech and momentum names. Last week’s decline sparked several calls for the market to go much lower, with a couple of professional observers making comparisons to 1929.
But the US market continues to be the best even in down weeks.
The US stock market has outperformed the rest of the world for 74 consecutive weeks.
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6/30/2025 1:24 PM | Steady As She Goes |
6/30/2025 9:54 AM | SUMMER RALLY STARTS |
6/27/2025 1:35 PM | Reaching New Heights |
6/27/2025 9:39 AM | THERE'S MORE! |
6/26/2025 1:10 PM | S&P Approaches Record |
6/26/2025 9:51 AM | CHIPS MOMENTUM CONTINUES |
6/25/2025 1:42 PM | Tech Stocks Power Nasdaq 100 |
6/25/2025 9:47 AM | CLIMBING MOUNTAINS OF WORRY |
6/24/2025 1:47 PM | Peace Rally |
6/24/2025 9:48 AM | PEACE THROUGH STRENGTH: THE MARKET LOVES IT |
6/23/2025 1:47 PM | Getting Some Resolve |
6/23/2025 9:51 AM | BRACING |
6/20/2025 1:29 PM | Second Triple Witching |
6/20/2025 9:38 AM | POWELL BLEW IT |
6/18/2025 12:41 PM | FED Day |
6/18/2025 9:45 AM | ROOM WITH A VIEW |
6/17/2025 1:26 PM | Tension Continues |
6/17/2025 9:50 AM | THE BIG TECH TEN & CO |
6/16/2025 1:34 PM | Fears Subside |
6/16/2025 9:44 AM | DRUMBEATS OF PEACE |
6/13/2025 1:30 PM | Showing Resilience |
6/13/2025 9:37 AM | THE NEW NUCLEAR AGE |
6/12/2025 1:27 PM | Interest Rates in Focus |
6/12/2025 9:35 AM | ENTER GEOPOLITICAL RISK |
6/11/2025 1:38 PM | Fed in Tough Spot |
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