Morning Commentary
The market limped into the weekend, with investors retreating into traditional defensive sectors and Financials (XLF), which got the benefit of the doubt after the election.
Meanwhile, large-cap growth continued its rugged retreat, although there were few places to hide.
Key Technical Levels
The S&P 500 (SPX) trades in a solid upward channel with crucial support at the 50-day moving average.
If the index could not hold, it would be vulnerable to $5411, but it's hard to see that happening.
I’m spying on the Volatility Index (VIX) to signal increased ‘fear’ as the emotional roller coaster leads to huge individual stock moves and greater overall volatility.
Geopolitical Heat
The war is heating up as North Korean troops have joined Russia’s most intense assaults in months, and now President Biden has given Ukraine the okay to use U.S. weapons more aggressively.
There will be lots of Fed speak this week, and Nvidia (NVDA) earnings mean this could be a wild week.
Today’s Session
There is encouraging action before the opening bell in large cap tech and momentum names. Last week’s decline sparked several calls for the market to go much lower, with a couple of professional observers making comparisons to 1929.
But the US market continues to be the best even in down weeks.
The US stock market has outperformed the rest of the world for 74 consecutive weeks.
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9/17/2025 1:33 PM | Fed on Deck |
9/17/2025 9:43 AM | Champing at the Bit |
9/16/2025 1:33 PM | All Eyes on the FOMC Meeting |
9/16/2025 10:05 AM | Growth Leads the Way |
9/15/2025 1:36 PM | Solid Rally |
9/15/2025 9:50 AM | It's Still Tech As We Await the Fed |
9/12/2025 1:28 PM | Mega-Caps Move Higher |
9/12/2025 9:32 AM | JAILBREAK |
9/11/2025 1:39 PM | Rally Continues |
9/11/2025 10:08 AM | All AI All the Time |
9/10/2025 1:55 PM | The Oracle Effect |
9/10/2025 9:50 AM | PARTY IN WHOVILLE |
9/9/2025 1:50 PM | Sharp BLS Revision |
9/9/2025 9:48 AM | Tech & Large Cap Safety |
9/8/2025 1:29 PM | Technology Leads Again |
9/8/2025 9:34 AM | FOREBODING |
9/5/2025 1:29 PM | Jobs Data Digest |
9/5/2025 9:55 AM | JOBS DAY (BUCKLE UP) |
9/4/2025 1:07 PM | Stocks Rise and Yields Sink |
9/4/2025 9:45 AM | MOSTLY BLAND |
9/3/2025 1:48 PM | Big Tech Rebounds |
9/3/2025 9:41 AM | NOT AN EMOTIONAL RELEASE (YET) |
9/2/2025 1:37 PM | Gloomy Start |
9/2/2025 9:44 AM | REMEMBER SEPTEMBER? |
8/29/2025 1:33 PM | Fed Governor Cook(ed)? |
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