Consumer confidence came out this morning and saw the sharpest one-month decline since August 2021.  More worrisome is the spread between jobs plentiful, and those hard to get. At 12.6%, it is correlated to a 5.1% unemployment rate.

I know you don’t see a recession, but today’s confidence read hints at a 5.1% unemployment rate – is there a number on Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) that might get you back to the drawing board?

In addition, the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Report continues its tailspin.

These aren’t reports that move the market by themselves, but are both empirical and anecdotal evidence that shows this economy is slowing faster than the experts know, or want to admit.

That 50-bps cut was the right move.