The S&P 500 and even the NASDAQ were poised to rally into the close today. Maybe, that’s off the table after Jay Powell came to the NABE conference like Hulk Hogan with a little less flare.  He’s saying he can and will be tough.

We’ll see. Here’s the thing. I want him to be tough despite the initial reaction by the market. Ultimately, the market wants him to be tougher on inflation to the extent the Fed can because some of this is out of their hands.

Bond Yields are ripping as Powell says the Fed would tighten above the neutral rate if needed and would also go more than 25 bps at every meeting if needed. 

And yes, the next hike will be 50 bps.

The ten year is nearing the top of the long-term channel, as the curve will become a daily hot topic now that the 10- and 2-year yields are very close to inversion - which would signal a potential recession.

Remember, Powell said there will not be a recession.