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Afternoon Note

Still Around All-Time High

By Charles Payne, CEO & Principal Analyst
7/5/2019 1:38 PM

It was a monster jobs report, highlighting the return of 335,000 Americans back to the labor force.

Diving in the numbers reveals one of the biggest problems with respect to education and incomes.   With all the talk of free college, very few point the issue of the economic burden of college dropouts.  Most have big loans but cannot get the kind of jobs that allow them to pay down debt while also forming households.

Last month it saw a surge in labor force for all educational attainment levels except “some college”, which saw 400,000 leave the labor force, and 500,000 fewer employed.

The message is clear if you start college you must finish or go straight for a different skill set that won’t come with crushing debt.

June Jobs Report

Labor Force




Less than HS





High School





Some College





Bachelors +






As for the market’s reaction, it’s a big short-term game that misses the point.  Fed rate cut handicapping suggest less of a chance of a rate cut this month, and that kind of chatter sent the market much lower at the start of trading.

I will say it’s my estimation that, unless we get powerhouse economic data the rest of the way, the Fed will still cut rates 25 bps this month following Powell’s repeated guidance of “an ounce of prevention.” But more important than the Fed rate cuts are strong and firm economic underpinnings that will maintain solid consumer spending and overall economic growth.

Wages were firm again although slightly less than consensus.  There still aren’t signs of inflation, which is the main concern at the Federal Reserve along with the global economy.  On that note, German factory orders saw an 8.6% year-to-year decline, the most in more than a decade.

Rest of Session

There aren’t many people around which might result in an exaggerated session.  I’m impressed after Wednesday’s session the markets are still around all-time high levels.

Have a great weekend.

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Chantal Pique on 7/7/2019 12:15:48 PM

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