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Afternoon Note

Post-Election Optimism

By Karina Hernandez, Senior Research Analyst
11/4/2026 1:32 PM

Stocks are higher with the S&P 500 revisiting its 50-day moving average after Democrats won control of both chambers of Congress while oil and yields decline.

Chip stocks are lower as investors weigh the potential measures the newly elected officials could take to restrict data center construction. However, hyperscalers such as Amazon (AMZN), Google (GOOG/L), Microsoft (MSFT), and many others, are gaining as investors expect these companies may spend less due to tighter regulations.

As a result of the move in hyperscalers, the Mag-7 is on track to add $900 billion in market cap, the most since April 2025.

Consumer Discretionary (XLY) is in the lead as many names benefit from the 20% decline in oil prices this week. The sector is seeing strong gains from homebuilders and retailers. On the other hand, Energy (XLE) is the worst performing sector as oil extends its week-to-date declines after Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer expressed confidence that some Republicans would support a resolution to end the Iran war.

Economic Data

ISM’s October services PMI eased 0.4 to 54.5, missing consensus of 54.8. For the first time since February, all the services indexes are in expansion territory. Notably, prices paid declined 1 point to 73, remaining above 70 in seven of the past eight months while business activity reached its lowest level since September 2025 at 53.8.

ADP’s private payrolls beat again in October and saw two straight months of adding 86k jobs. This is the strongest growth since June. Notably, there were gains across the board from small to large businesses.

Trade, transportation, and utilities added the most private jobs in October, while professional and business services took a hit.


 

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