Friday may have been the week's most impressive session, as the market turned higher after back-to-back red sessions. Defensive sectors enjoyed the largest gains, but momentum darlings and in-the-news stocks dominated the biggest advancers list.

Earnings & Volatility Season

Banks officially kick off third-quarter earnings season this week at a pivotal time, as they have been under significant pressure and are at key technical support levels.

Volatility

Investors were told to expect a spike in volatility in September that never materialized.  It could happen from a series of events, depending first on whether this week's CPI report comes in hotter than expected.

Today’s Session

We begin the week with investors anxiously awaiting the start of earnings season and key economic data.  No matter how the CPI report comes in, plenty of tension remains ahead of Kevin Warsh’s speech on Friday.

Moreover, attention is on geopolitics and a shift from Iran to Russia–Ukraine. The fighting is as intense as ever, and as winter approaches, many hope, perhaps against hope, that something can end that war.

President Trump announced an emergency ceasefire on energy targets, but crude oil is slightly higher; in other words, nobody believes it will last until sundown.

As for Iran and the Strait, crude flow is at its highest level since the conflict began and according to Goldman, when adding back in dark exports, levels are near February levels.

Weirdness, for lack of a better word, in the SI/AI world is pressuring the NASDAQ – it will be interesting to see if buyers step up.

Meanwhile, trimmed mean inflation is moving lower. This matters because it is Kevin Warsh’s preferred measure of inflation.