Morning Commentary
There was an avalanche of headlines yesterday, from Fed Jay Powell testifying to the Senate Banking Committee, Elon Musk at the White House, and the United States securing the freedom of an American held by Russia for four years. The market bounced around in a narrow range and found buyers around noon.
Market Breadth was mostly even across indices, except the NASDAQ Composite.
The S&P 500 (SPX) closed above its 50-day moving average again, which is a good sign. It's clear this market is poised for a big move, and while we are leaning that it’s a breakout to all-time highs, that’s not guaranteed.
Investors flocked to value and low volume while stampeding out of growth.
Wild West
“Mag Seven” earnings have carried the broad market and will be a saving grace if the recent decline in the other 493 ‘non-Mag 7’ stocks earnings estimate continues.
Smaller Tech (XLK) names have been hitting it big on the earnings front. After the close yesterday, there were monster moves:
I love the action in smaller names, which reflects the excitement and ingenuity powering the Fourth Industrial Revolution.
Today’s Session
It’s been a long time since the CPI release has knocked the market down, but that will change at the start of trading.
Coming in hotter than expected puts the Fed back in play, as the Street was cool with few or no rate cuts. They will find it harder to live with rate hikes. It’s premature to think that it is in the offing, but odds shifted this morning.
The market is opening under pressure.
PS: With sticky inflation, DOGE is even more important. I’m thrilled with what’s happening in DC.
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9/18/2025 7:13 AM | Risk Management Cut |
9/17/2025 1:33 PM | Fed on Deck |
9/17/2025 9:43 AM | Champing at the Bit |
9/16/2025 1:33 PM | All Eyes on the FOMC Meeting |
9/16/2025 10:05 AM | Growth Leads the Way |
9/15/2025 1:36 PM | Solid Rally |
9/15/2025 9:50 AM | It's Still Tech As We Await the Fed |
9/12/2025 1:28 PM | Mega-Caps Move Higher |
9/12/2025 9:32 AM | JAILBREAK |
9/11/2025 1:39 PM | Rally Continues |
9/11/2025 10:08 AM | All AI All the Time |
9/10/2025 1:55 PM | The Oracle Effect |
9/10/2025 9:50 AM | PARTY IN WHOVILLE |
9/9/2025 1:50 PM | Sharp BLS Revision |
9/9/2025 9:48 AM | Tech & Large Cap Safety |
9/8/2025 1:29 PM | Technology Leads Again |
9/8/2025 9:34 AM | FOREBODING |
9/5/2025 1:29 PM | Jobs Data Digest |
9/5/2025 9:55 AM | JOBS DAY (BUCKLE UP) |
9/4/2025 1:07 PM | Stocks Rise and Yields Sink |
9/4/2025 9:45 AM | MOSTLY BLAND |
9/3/2025 1:48 PM | Big Tech Rebounds |
9/3/2025 9:41 AM | NOT AN EMOTIONAL RELEASE (YET) |
9/2/2025 1:37 PM | Gloomy Start |
9/2/2025 9:44 AM | REMEMBER SEPTEMBER? |
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