Morning Commentary
There was an avalanche of headlines yesterday, from Fed Jay Powell testifying to the Senate Banking Committee, Elon Musk at the White House, and the United States securing the freedom of an American held by Russia for four years. The market bounced around in a narrow range and found buyers around noon.

Market Breadth was mostly even across indices, except the NASDAQ Composite.

The S&P 500 (SPX) closed above its 50-day moving average again, which is a good sign. It's clear this market is poised for a big move, and while we are leaning that it’s a breakout to all-time highs, that’s not guaranteed.

Investors flocked to value and low volume while stampeding out of growth.

Wild West
“Mag Seven” earnings have carried the broad market and will be a saving grace if the recent decline in the other 493 ‘non-Mag 7’ stocks earnings estimate continues.

Smaller Tech (XLK) names have been hitting it big on the earnings front. After the close yesterday, there were monster moves:
I love the action in smaller names, which reflects the excitement and ingenuity powering the Fourth Industrial Revolution.
Today’s Session

It’s been a long time since the CPI release has knocked the market down, but that will change at the start of trading.

Coming in hotter than expected puts the Fed back in play, as the Street was cool with few or no rate cuts. They will find it harder to live with rate hikes. It’s premature to think that it is in the offing, but odds shifted this morning.

The market is opening under pressure.
PS: With sticky inflation, DOGE is even more important. I’m thrilled with what’s happening in DC.
| Tweet |
| 9/25/2026 1:21 PM | Diplomatic Hopes Set the Mood |
| 9/25/2026 9:38 AM | THE LEAD HORSES ARE BACK |
| 9/24/2026 1:20 PM | Yields Set the Tone |
| 9/24/2026 9:35 AM | TOO HOT? |
| 9/23/2026 1:09 PM | Rate Hike Fears |
| 9/23/2026 9:29 AM | RECORDS, RIVALS, AND THE RACE FOR AI |
| 9/22/2026 1:17 PM | Digesting Monday’s Rally |
| 9/22/2026 9:36 AM | A Strong Start to the Week |
| 9/21/2026 1:14 PM | Monday Momentum |
| 9/21/2026 9:33 AM | Tech Poised to Surge |
| 9/18/2026 1:32 PM | Yields Overshadowing Chip Strength |
| 9/18/2026 10:09 AM | REMEMBER 3D PRINTING? |
| 9/17/2026 1:29 PM | Bounce Back Thursday |
| 9/17/2026 9:45 AM | TIME FOR WARSH TO LEARN BLACKJACK AND BOXING |
| 9/16/2026 1:19 PM | Setting the Stage |
| 9/16/2026 9:37 AM | WILL WARSH BLINK? |
| 9/15/2026 1:39 PM | Tough Tuesday |
| 9/15/2026 9:39 AM | DOOMSDAY POSTPONED |
| 9/14/2026 1:23 PM | AI Slowdown, Yields Surge |
| 9/14/2026 9:56 AM | AI DOOM DOMINATED THE WEEKEND |
| 9/11/2026 1:23 PM | Staging a Rebound |
| 9/11/2026 9:41 AM | Monumental Tech Momentum Decline |
| 9/10/2026 1:20 PM | Choppy Action |
| 9/10/2026 9:32 AM | CALLING BESSENT'S BLUSTER |
| 9/9/2026 1:34 PM | Busy Wednesday |
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