Morning Commentary
“When the bond market realizes we are 100% serious about cutting spending & balancing the budget - rates go down, and families immediately benefit from lower interest on credit cards, mortgages & car payments, back to the 2019 Baseline.” - Elon Musk
The most significant developments of yesterday weren’t the reaction to Alphabet’s (GOOGL) results. It was the feigned outrage over ‘Trump Tower Gaza’ or the latest Hollywood scandal.
Another significant development was the move in the ten-year bond yield (TNX). For all the tariff hysteria in the media, the bond market seems to be appealing to and believing in the administration's moves.
Defensive & Aggressive
The session saw defensive sectors higher and Technology (XLK), led by chip makers.
Chips Rip
After Google (GOOGL) hiked its capital expenditures (capex) budget to $75 billion, four of the top ten advancers were semiconductor makers.
Heat Map
Outside of the continued ‘yin and yang’ between Technology (hardware) and Communication Services (XLC) (software), there was a ton of green on the screen.
Party Over There
It was one of those days when different investors put money to work in every factor in the market. Investors will not pull up the stakes, even when the financial media tries to push them out the exit doors.
Today’s Session
Initial jobless claims and continuing jobless claims came in slightly above consensus. The latter will spark increased chatter once it cracks 2.0 million.
Productivity came out in-line with consensus of +1.2%. Unit labor cost climbed +3.0, while the Street was looking for +3.3.
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9/18/2025 7:13 AM | Risk Management Cut |
9/17/2025 1:33 PM | Fed on Deck |
9/17/2025 9:43 AM | Champing at the Bit |
9/16/2025 1:33 PM | All Eyes on the FOMC Meeting |
9/16/2025 10:05 AM | Growth Leads the Way |
9/15/2025 1:36 PM | Solid Rally |
9/15/2025 9:50 AM | It's Still Tech As We Await the Fed |
9/12/2025 1:28 PM | Mega-Caps Move Higher |
9/12/2025 9:32 AM | JAILBREAK |
9/11/2025 1:39 PM | Rally Continues |
9/11/2025 10:08 AM | All AI All the Time |
9/10/2025 1:55 PM | The Oracle Effect |
9/10/2025 9:50 AM | PARTY IN WHOVILLE |
9/9/2025 1:50 PM | Sharp BLS Revision |
9/9/2025 9:48 AM | Tech & Large Cap Safety |
9/8/2025 1:29 PM | Technology Leads Again |
9/8/2025 9:34 AM | FOREBODING |
9/5/2025 1:29 PM | Jobs Data Digest |
9/5/2025 9:55 AM | JOBS DAY (BUCKLE UP) |
9/4/2025 1:07 PM | Stocks Rise and Yields Sink |
9/4/2025 9:45 AM | MOSTLY BLAND |
9/3/2025 1:48 PM | Big Tech Rebounds |
9/3/2025 9:41 AM | NOT AN EMOTIONAL RELEASE (YET) |
9/2/2025 1:37 PM | Gloomy Start |
9/2/2025 9:44 AM | REMEMBER SEPTEMBER? |
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