Morning Commentary
It had to happen at some point, but it was still shocking that yesterday the market closed lower. Overall trends are primarily pointing higher, but now, the Russell 2000 (IWM) sees red arrows in the short-term and mid-term.
The market is stuck in steady optimism with a hint of anxiety.
Not Bearish But Cautious
Bear sentiment continued to ebb, but bullishness didn’t move as investors returned to the neutral zone.
Nvidia Paradox
Eight of eleven sectors finished higher on the S&P 500, but Technology (XLK) offset it yesterday, which took it on the chin.
I’m calling it the Nvidia (NVDA) Paradox.
Large-Cap Still Rules
Large-cap value edged higher, while small-cap growth declined the most.
Fresh Tech
Four Tech names were among the biggest gainers, including oversold household names (Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) and Salesforce (CRM)).
Today’s Session
Economic data from Europe points to a continued slowdown, which should excite investors looking for the ECB to continue cutting rates.
Global Composite PMI |
June |
May |
EU |
50.8 |
52.2 |
UK |
51.7 |
53.0 |
Germany |
50.6 |
52.4 |
France |
48.2 |
48.9 |
Meanwhile, there is $5.1 trillion of option notional expiring today.
The real test for the market is whether buyers will step up to buy weakness into the close.
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7/3/2025 9:45 AM | NICE & STEADY AS SEMIS CONTINUE TO CHIP IN |
7/2/2025 1:44 PM | Materials' Strength Continues |
7/2/2025 9:38 AM | BARNBURNER |
7/1/2025 1:29 PM | Rotation |
7/1/2025 9:45 AM | FEAR OF MISSING OUT IS CREEPING IN |
6/30/2025 1:24 PM | Steady As She Goes |
6/30/2025 9:54 AM | SUMMER RALLY STARTS |
6/27/2025 1:35 PM | Reaching New Heights |
6/27/2025 9:39 AM | THERE'S MORE! |
6/26/2025 1:10 PM | S&P Approaches Record |
6/26/2025 9:51 AM | CHIPS MOMENTUM CONTINUES |
6/25/2025 1:42 PM | Tech Stocks Power Nasdaq 100 |
6/25/2025 9:47 AM | CLIMBING MOUNTAINS OF WORRY |
6/24/2025 1:47 PM | Peace Rally |
6/24/2025 9:48 AM | PEACE THROUGH STRENGTH: THE MARKET LOVES IT |
6/23/2025 1:47 PM | Getting Some Resolve |
6/23/2025 9:51 AM | BRACING |
6/20/2025 1:29 PM | Second Triple Witching |
6/20/2025 9:38 AM | POWELL BLEW IT |
6/18/2025 12:41 PM | FED Day |
6/18/2025 9:45 AM | ROOM WITH A VIEW |
6/17/2025 1:26 PM | Tension Continues |
6/17/2025 9:50 AM | THE BIG TECH TEN & CO |
6/16/2025 1:34 PM | Fears Subside |
6/16/2025 9:44 AM | DRUMBEATS OF PEACE |
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