It feels like a hundred years ago, but the February jobs report was released on Friday, and it’s still triggering debate.  A lot of folks are sharpening their pencils, because there wasn’t a major firm expecting the unemployment rate to zoom up to 3.9%.

There was a decline of 15,400 temp workers, which brings the total to 433,300 laid off temp workers since March 2022.

Laid off temp workers are usually a precursor to laid off full time.

Another bad omen for full-time workers is the spike in unemployment for young workers.

Leading up to the report, the decline in quits was the biggest red flag of the week.

A further examination sees declines below the 2017-2019 average in the best paying jobs:

• Professional $1,269
• Information and construction $1,438 and $1,394
• Mining $1,740

And just moments ago, the New York Fed released interesting data.

There was a leap to 14.5% probability of losing a job over the next twelve months.

And a corresponding decline in the probability of finding a job is down to 52.5%.

In both cases these are the worst levels since April 2021.

And now, the new budget proposal is out, and it’s a doozy. 

We will have more details in the morning Hotline, but I don’t think you are getting off scot-free.