Once again major indices slipped under key support points during the session yesterday but clawed back above them by the closing bell. Five sectors were higher on the S&P 500, including the three winners of the month joined by Consumer Discretionary (XLY) (impressive) and Materials (XLB) (deep value).

Consumer Discretionary got a big assist from Amazon (AMZN), and others, including Costco (COST) and Walmart (WMT), fared well, too.

I like the way the market closed, although a big session was squandered once again. Not only was there no follow-through from a monster session on Wednesday, but the market opened by falling through a trapdoor. In a way, that’s why the late rebound attempt, as feeble as it seems, was the sign investors needed to see. I am not happy with volume, however.

Market Breadth

Market breadth was better, although negative with paltry new highs.

Market Breadth	NYSE	NASDAQ
Advancers	1,358	1,688
Decliners	1,935	2,899
New Highs	44	26
New Lows	241	313
Up Volume	2.32 billion	1.73 billion
Down Volume	2.58 billion	3.21 billion

The Advance/Decline Line (A/D Line) continues to limp along, but the Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) and Relative Strength Index (RSI) hint at oversold conditions.

Own It

Take a bow, the night is over

This masquerade is getting older

Light are low, the curtains down

There's no one here (There's no one here, there's no one in the crowd)

-Babyface & Madonna’s Duet, 1995 American Music Awards

I don’t want to be political, but the American public must understand that pipedreams (pun intended) of “clean energy” and electric cars are truly years away. Hence, it’s suicidal to make gasoline more expensive.

Real Wages Real Depressing

The consequence of the inflation crisis ignited by that $1.9 trillion “covid” relief bill last March has already taken on a life of its own. It’s called an inflation spiral, and they tend to get out of control. It is true the Federal Reserve has played an amazing role in this fiasco. Just too much money chased too few goods while supplies were being shut down, especially in the case of oil and increased regulations. 

Real wages were slammed last month for all workers, including blue-collar workers.

The market is oversold and has hinted at wanting to rebound. The first sigh of a relief rally will be sharp, and many stocks will be up 20% to 50% and still remain below their all-time high points. Then there are a lot of quality names that will also trade like high Beta stocks. We’ve already seen this in 2021 when the hot sector sizzled no matter the typical moves.

But waiting for that moment is like walking a tightrope with no net.

However, longer-term, we will look back at the amazing opportunities that were everywhere. But in real-time, it is hard to see the forest for the falling trees.

Portfolio Approach

There are no sector weighting changes in our Hotline Model Portfolio this morning.

Today’s Session

Russian President Putin cites ‘certain positive developments,’ in negotiations with Ukraine

The market popped this morning on hopeful headlines that suggested more movement on ending the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

I’m waiting for data at 10:00.

There are names I want to be long into a pause in the most difficult geopolitical development since 9-11. If you are not a current subscriber to our premium Hotline service, email Info@wstreet.com to sign up today.

Comments

3 things you can count on in life. death, taxes and the fed getting it wrong. always have and always will Michael D Thomas on 3/11/2022 8:41:26 AM

RECESSION DON CREEK on 3/11/2022 10:00:01 AM

I do not believe Yellen on her prediction of a soft landing. For the most part I take a contrarian point of view with this administration. Stan on 3/11/2022 10:17:25 AM

Surely, You are kidding Charles.....A death cross on the $Comp, on the $DJI, and soon to be on the S&P......add in that 11 0f the past 12 Fed tightening cycles have ended in recession. What do you think? This does not even begin to take in issues like disastrous government policy decisions, inflation, slowing world growth, the collapse of the Chinese real estate market. I could go on and on! My only question is when does recession start? How long does it last? How deep does it go? We'll all be lucky if we avoid stagflation. How do you like this answer? Better than a simple Yes or No? Charles Haselberger on 3/11/2022 10:45:44 AM

I’m sitting on the fence on this one :-)… I think we can look forward to a soft recession. Matthew Rattay on 3/11/2022 12:06:39 PM

There will be recession!!!! Ken on 3/11/2022 2:53:24 PM

The Fed is boxed in. Either it will be continued high inflation or a recession. John Galt on 3/11/2022 10:53:19 PM

Recession Ken M Mlagenovich on 3/15/2022 4:34:58 PM

No, there will not be a recession in 2022. The economy is strong, demand for goods and services will continue and the supply bottlenecks are getting some relief. Allen Fine on 3/19/2022 4:08:30 PM

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