The market was relatively stable until Goldman released its model on how the so-called Dot Plot will look after today’s FOMC wraps up.  If you recall from my morning commentary, this is not good news (see bottom left box).

It would suggest a dovish Powell has lost control over the Fed and perhaps his dream of full employment measured by various demographics and not just the U3 number.

After the knee-jerk reaction, the market seems to regain its composure, albeit the mix still exhibits caution.

I think a major part of the anxiety in this market is overdone, and I want to make sure investors are not whipsawed by Wall Street looking for easy money.  There are amazing companies that you want to own.  If they get cheaper because professional investors are having a tantrum, then I want to take advantage.

But for the most part, I do not want to get sucked into a very narrow, short term mindset that ignores my own work and the backdrop of strong economy and even stronger earnings.

All that being said, I do believe he will rise to the occasion like he did in his second FOMC press conference after completely blowing his inaugural presser.

I think the Powell’s checklist should look like this:

• Corral the Fed – Keep the team dovish
• Extend SLR exemption
• Make room for future bond purchase limits (hint at yield caps)
• Sell inflation as transitory

If he can do these things, we could see a monster rally.  Have confidence in the names you own but be prepared to make changes as well.