Well, the stimulus cash is hitting accounts and people are hitting the stores.  While a large chunk, perhaps a plurality of folks might save the latest check from the federal government, I saw a lot of people descend on my local mall.

They were mostly young adults, and I suspect many probably live with their parents. But for them, this cash was Christmas in March, and they were treating themselves to very expensive stuff.  While the American public has been prudent overall, the fact of the matter is, at some point, a lot of the nearly $4.0 trillion in savings will come into the economy.

Personal Savings Rate

Another big slug of cash will find its way into the stock market, perhaps as much as $170.0 billion.

More inflows have been earmarked for value funds than normal, but the bulk of the money will go into funds mirroring and tracking the S&P 500.

Some of that cash will also go into Bitcoin and ETFs like BUZZ, which are designed to capture the trading impulses of newer individual traders.

Overall, this could be a slow session with the Fed gathering looming large on Wednesday.  There seems to be no way Powell & Co can hold their two-day meeting on monetary policy and not take some kind of action to calm the investment waters.  At least, I do not think there is anyway they could be that tone-deaf to the message of the market.

Portfolio Approach

We are adding a new position in Industrials this morning in our Hotline Model Portfolio.

Today’s Session

Watching the ten-year bond yield edge higher, albeit at a slower rate has added an aura of caution to the start of trading.