Payne's Perspective: AI Contagion Spreads / NVDA in Batter's Box
2/23/2026
Fearing Investment in Favor of Financial Engineering While the AI scare has taken a toll on stocks in industries vulnerable to immediate upheaval, the other part of the stock is Wall Street’s about-face on capital expenditures (capex) to build the most robust AI foundation in the world.
Even champions of “Mag Seven” names are saying things, like free cash flow levels are at the “yellow flag” levels.
Historically Investment Two years ago, hyperscaler stocks stalled or dipped amid concerns they couldn’t maintain investment levels. Now, chief investment officers are worried about overinvesting. It is a historic moment that cannot be ignored and should not be underestimated.
It's true that the last industrial revolutions saw industries that drove them into despair and became largely insignificant.
We are not at that stage in the current Industrial Revolution.
There is a suggestion that the market reached its peak during the “Nifty Fifty” and “Dotcom” eras. This chart from BCA Research shows that the decade preceding the total return strategy of long high-investment companies and short low-investment stocks was richly rewarded. The chart suggests we are at the peak of periods like the “Nifty Fifty” and “Dotcom,” and that from here on out, low-investment stocks will outperform high-investment stocks.
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Charles Payne
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