8/3/2018
By Charles Payne, CEO & Principal Analyst

Keep Fighting!

More, more, more

How do you like it, how do you like it

More, more, more

How do you like it, how do you like it

-Andrea True

I was shocked to see a poll from UBS on Business Confidence, which continues to improve.

• 88% of the respondents say China is engaging in unfair trade with the United States
• While 49% of these business owners acknowledged that the tariff battle would be negative for the U.S. economy, that number is down 15% since April, conversely, 44% say the battle will benefit their own business, and that’s up 21% since April

The results of this survey and the way the U.S. economy is holding up as other economies stumble is why we are hearing there could be a deal with Mexico soon, and China has returned to the negotiating table.   

Approval of more tariffs:

• China: 71%
• Mexico: 66%
• Europe: 64%
• Canada: 60%

https://www.ubs.com/microsites/ubs-investor-watch/en/humming-along.html

Foreign Direct Investment

This is the latest narrative being used to scare folks into not fighting back. That first quarter of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) has declined dramatically in the last two years. It has, but this number can be very volatile, and the $51.0 billion in the first quarter is a lot more than most first quarters in the last ten years.

Moreover, the number has been trending lower since peaking in 2015. There are numerous factors that influence these numbers, more than tariffs or fighting back against them, including a rush to buy American companies before the new administration and a stronger Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CIFUS).

• 2010: $38.3 billion
• 2011: $42.4 billion
• 2012: $36.3 billion
• 2013: $33.6 billion
• 2014: -$74.9 billion
• 2015: $237.0 billion
• 2016: $146.5 billion
• 2017: $89.7 billion

By the way, the notion that China is so great at returning American cash in the form of investments should be put into the context of investments from other countries - some with significantly smaller economies.

https://www.bea.gov/international/di1fdibal.htm

Charles Payne
Wall Street Strategies

Add a Comment!