6/23/2025
By Charles Payne CEO & Principal Analyst

High-Frequency Data

The Federal Reserve seems more disconnected from the economy than ever and is no longer data-dependent.

• Retail sales are holding up, according to Redbook.
• Air travel is rebounding.
• The second quarter's GDP will be strong, but much of that will offset the first quarter.
• August inflation and other inflation data are moving in the right direction.
• However, initial jobless claims and continuing claims are moving in the wrong direction.

Powell & Fed: The Statement

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) removed the word “stabilized” concerning the unemployment rate but also removed “increased further” concerning the economic outlook.

The Fed is attentive to risks to both sides of its dual mandate.

Although the statement underwent few changes, the fireworks came from the quarterly SEP, which ignores current trends and data.

Powell & Fed: Economic Projections

Nobody expected the Fed to change rates, but it caught most observers off guard with its revised economic projections, which scream “stagflation " but make huge assumptions.

Slower economic growth and higher inflation  = stagflation.

No Longer Dependent

I guess all those Ph.Ds at the Fed finally got a chance to strut their stuff, assuming they see tariffs as more than a potential one-time price hike. That means no help for a slowing economy.

Powell referenced the so-called ‘Teal Book’ as they embarked on arresting inflation, but they have now discarded it—but why?

To read the full report, contact your account representative or email Info@wstreet.com.

Charles Payne
Wall Street Strategies

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