Morning Commentary
Yesterday, the market stumbled out of the gate and found its footing. New highs beget new highs because all the cash on the sidelines, which had been waiting for the golden moment to leap, is threatened with missing the whole shebang. Only two segments finished lower in all factors.
The iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) and the S&P SmallCap 600 Index (SML) are on fire, which has to do with hopes that the next president will prioritize the domestic economy. The big test for the Russell is breaking through a double top.
I'm seeing names I had long forgotten about coming on like Gangbusters. I would unlikely feature them on the Hotline, but there are many good trades out there.
Riding the Bus
We are entering the giddy stage, but it also must be said that these stages can last for years. This is the ‘Partridge Family’ bus riding off. I will say, however, that I get happy but remain disciplined.
Economic Calendar
There is lots of economic data out with retail sales at the top of the list:
Today’s Session (Welcome to the Party, Pal)
Moving Stocks
The VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) needs to close above 260 to set up a credible attempt at a new record high.
Retail Sales beat consensus (remember the game is the narrative and manipulating expectations). The month-to-month gain is in the middle of the road.
I’m impressed with sporting goods, general merchandise (including department stores), miscellaneous (florists and pets), and food away from home. Internet was so-so, and electronics were a disaster.
Philly Fed
The Philly Fed Manufacturing report was strong but I’m very concerned.
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7/11/2025 1:45 PM | Facing Pressure |
7/11/2025 9:48 AM | CLEAR FOR TAKEOFF |
7/10/2025 1:53 PM | Small Caps Rally |
7/10/2025 9:56 AM | ENOUGH ZEN TO SHARE |
7/9/2025 1:32 PM | NVDA New Milestone |
7/9/2025 9:46 AM | PASSING THE BATON |
7/8/2025 1:33 PM | Seesaw Session |
7/8/2025 9:55 AM | MORE SUMMER BLAHS THAN FEAR OF MYANMAR'S TARIFF |
7/7/2025 1:27 PM | Trade Talks and Profit Taking |
7/7/2025 9:51 AM | LOVING MOOD |
7/3/2025 9:45 AM | NICE & STEADY AS SEMIS CONTINUE TO CHIP IN |
7/2/2025 1:44 PM | Materials' Strength Continues |
7/2/2025 9:38 AM | BARNBURNER |
7/1/2025 1:29 PM | Rotation |
7/1/2025 9:45 AM | FEAR OF MISSING OUT IS CREEPING IN |
6/30/2025 1:24 PM | Steady As She Goes |
6/30/2025 9:54 AM | SUMMER RALLY STARTS |
6/27/2025 1:35 PM | Reaching New Heights |
6/27/2025 9:39 AM | THERE'S MORE! |
6/26/2025 1:10 PM | S&P Approaches Record |
6/26/2025 9:51 AM | CHIPS MOMENTUM CONTINUES |
6/25/2025 1:42 PM | Tech Stocks Power Nasdaq 100 |
6/25/2025 9:47 AM | CLIMBING MOUNTAINS OF WORRY |
6/24/2025 1:47 PM | Peace Rally |
6/24/2025 9:48 AM | PEACE THROUGH STRENGTH: THE MARKET LOVES IT |
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