10/5/2026
By Charles Payne, CEO & Principal Analyst

Bond Market

What a difference a year makes in life in general, and lately in the bond market in particular. This is a generational move.

The brutal, unrelenting rise of Treasury yields continued last week. For many observers, it’s a long-overdue consequence of fiscal fecklessness. Still, others say it’s a proxy for higher commodity prices, namely crude oil. Another camp says a strong economy is driving the climb.

There is no doubt that the biggest providers of liquidity are becoming the biggest consumers of liquidity, which is adding to the move.

Yields are flashing overbought signals and could be ready to pull back, even if temporarily. Beyond that relief, some of the drivers mentioned above could be peaking and ready to turn lower.

30-Year Yield Rocket Ship

Crude Coming Down

I think crude oil will come down significantly, and while refineries take longer to repair, diesel should also start moving lower.

Treasury Yields and Equity Bull Market

Higher yields are not an instant bull market killer, especially under 6.0%.  Stocks have rallied with yields in the teens.

In the 1980s, the 10-year was at 15.0%, and the stock market began a monumental secular rally. Of course, yields were high and moving lower and to the right, but are now moving higher again.

That does matter to a degree, along with the velocity of the move.

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Charles Payne
Wall Street Strategies