Payne's Perspective: September 15, 2025: Powell's Podium
9/15/2025
People are generally bummed out. But we have been bummed out for a long time. Google Trends released a series of charts spanning a decade, showing an ever-increasing number of people looking to sell their house, give back a car, borrow against stock, and even sell their Rolex. Over the years, economic sentiment fluctuated within a range, but the bottom was broken during the Vietnam War, social upheaval, and runaway inflation in the 1970s. The current freefall, which began with the 2000 crash, is different – it has become unstoppable. Media’s Role FT posted an article that examined thousands of their articles over several years and admitted they have been a sour bunch of folks. I think policy is the new invisible hand of economic and financial reporting. Consumer Sentiment Slips Again Consumer sentiment numbers out after the open came in below consensus, but the market mostly ignored the data. It’s unlikely the Fed is ignoring the results since it once moved Jay Powell to make a U-turn that roiled markets for months. I think the consensus was too high, but the fact is that we never escaped the mental malaise of 2022 and 2023, when many Americans were confronted with runaway inflation for the first time. Powell's most recent Jackson Hole has set up a new direction for Fed action, which means ignoring this kind of data. The consumer sentiment report, which followed a record-high household wealth report, highlights the paradoxical world in which policymakers and investors must navigate. We learned yesterday that household wealth reached a record $176.3 trillion, up $7.0 trillion in the second quarter, and is now $118 trillion higher than it was in 2000. The Fed takes no responsibility for this, even though it is all based on stocks and property values – should it be considered? I say absolutely. There are more haves, even adjusted for inflation, than there have been, which makes not being in the club even more exciting and depressing. To read the full report, contact your account representative or email Info@wstreet.com.
Charles Payne
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