1/29/2024
By Charles Payne CEO & Principal Analyst

It's Still Early

By historical standards, this rally is just getting started. So why does it feel so tenuous?

Contributions to Rallies

The rally feels tenuous because of its dynamics, built by multiple expansions more than earnings. There has been more angst around the move than normal bull market anxiety.

Over the past two decades, when multiple expansions were the greatest contributor to up years, the following years were lower or negative:

• 2007 was followed by a disastrous 2008
• Smaller upside moves in the years after 2013 and 2015

The one exception came in 2021 when the major rally, which was almost an all-multiple expansion, was followed by an even bigger rally the following year when earnings surged.

Earnings Coming Up Short

Thus far, financial results are coming in slightly better than expected:

• Revenue: +2.7% Consensus +2.6% (Jan 1) +3.6% (Oct 1)
• Earnings: +4.9% Consensus +4.7% (Jan 1) +11.0% (Oct 1)

To read full report contact your account representative or email Info@wstreet.com. 

Charles Payne
Wall Street Strategies

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