Payne's Perspective: March 29, 2021: Betting Against Historic Outcomes
U.S. bonds yields rose for seven consecutive weeks before finally stumbling last week. The 10-year yield - which has been the focus of attention - finally pulled back, but the bias is still to the upside, as seen in Friday’s session when it climbed +2.85% to 1.66%.
The unrelenting upside pressure cast a shadow over the stock market for most of the session on Friday until a last-minute surge into the close. That was extremely impressive, and I’ll discuss it later in this perspective.
Great work from Arbor Data Science delved into the stock market’s implications after bond yields had risen for seven consecutive weeks.
As you might suspect, this scenario has been rare. Still, it has occurred in nine other periods -the research centered on what happened to equity markets in the subsequent seven weeks after the meteoric rise in bond yields. Eight out of nine times, the stock market declined over the next seven weeks. The past doesn’t have to be prologue, but investors should become more comfortable with the notion of my gyrations.
To read the full report, contact your account representative or email Research@wstreet.com
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