Payne's Perspective: July 6, 2020: Keep Your Head to the Sky
I cannot express how flabbergasted I am at the nonstop assault on hopeful news, the stock market rally, and individual investors. This has led a campaign to harm the economy and to derail the stock market.
Keep watching COVID-19 trends. Take care to investigate data trends on all fronts from the economy to the virus for investing clues.
There will be an uptick in COVID-19 deaths. Such increases could be reported as spikes, but I don’t believe they will commensurate with the increase in COVID-19 cases.
That would be hopeful news, pointing to a lower mortality rate and giving greater credence to the notion we can reopen the economy with a singular focus on taking care of more vulnerable parts of the population.
The biggest hurdle will be opening schools in the fall.
Many parents need schools to not only teach but also to watch their children during the day while they are at work. The cost and availability of childcare outside of the school systems is prohibitive. Getting children back to school is exponentially more important than reopening bars and beaches.
Positive news like American Airlines’ increasing flights and Pfizer (PFE) having great success in the early stage of the COVID-19 vaccine did not move the market the same way. Such news would have impacted the market in April and May. Conversely, the market resolve is still in place.
I mentioned key resistance/breakout points (below). A move through these levels should trigger a major infusion of sideline cash. On the other end, beware of more selling if the S&P 500 fails to hold 2,900:
Remember one thing in your moments of despair: We. Are. Going. To. Win
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