11/26/2018
By Charles Payne, CEO & Principal Analyst

Jerome ‘Jay’ Powell, the chairman of the Federal Reserve, is speaking in New York on Wednesday at 11:30.  And everyone wants to hear the Fed. He understands their worries that the Fed will overshoot, and he will address them.  Of course, Powell would never come straight out and say we are going to slow down, but he should reference the data and the trends:

• Housing Market Weakness
• Strong Dollar Impact on Multinational Corporations
• Bond Yield Curve
• Emerging Market Weakness

In fact, for all the chatter about the trade war with China, I think a bigger worry is how fast China’s economy is slowing.  There are so many embedded issues weighing on China’s economy, from a credit crisis, to a mountain of debt and slowing domestic demand.

In the third quarter, China’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew at the slowest rate since 2009.

China Quarterly GDP

Chairman Powell has acknowledged the housing market and admitted the Fed watches the stock market, so he must understand that his comments on October 3^rd made things worse. 

Moreover, the Fed’s main mission is employment and inflation. There is still no sign the latter is an issue that deserves the urgency of four rate hikes in 2019.

Powell must make the market understand the Fed isn’t on autopilot and will not allowance their arrogance and ham-fisted ways to derail this economy. By the way, this holiday shopping season got off to a strong start, led by a revealing in shopping from lower-income households. 

If the Fed continues to blow it, Jay Powell will be the Grinch that stole more than just Christmas.

 G-20 Summit

The good news is expectations are low that a deal will emerge from the meeting between President Trump and President Xi - there is a meeting and that’s progress.  America is not going to continue to lose this trade war, which has been raging for decades. I’m sure Wall Street globalists will continue to rave along with the media, which fawned over Turkish President Erdogan last week, and they will portray the most unflattering picture of the administration’s efforts as much as possible.

Investing isn’t about short-termism, and neither is the once-in-a-lifetime chance to fix the multiple wrongs in this relationship.  However, coming out of the meeting with a framework to a deal would be huge, and I think it’s possible.

Charles Payne
Wall Street Strategies

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