#AskPayne November 7, 2018
Does last night strengthen Trump's hand in the world with trade. Or stay about the same. Seems pretty clear American farmers are behind the president
Yes…not only did his Senate candidates in soybean-growing countries win, but they won huge!
Your thoughts about Amazon stocks
I think Amazon is facing competition on several fronts from retail to the Cloud, and investors are going to have to adjust, but I’m still long. I think the stock goes significantly higher, as it still dominates core businesses and grows others.
Federal Reserve & Jay Powell
Is rate policy being used as a weapon against Trump's economic plan?
It's already tempered new construction permits...all the while, they say inflation is very low. I think they'll continue moving upwards through the next election as a wedge issue more than anything else.
@Todd Bubba Horwitz
@cvpayne Charles what are you drinking, send me some I want to feel that good. We know the FED will blow it as history proves. Markets will close the year lower than they are now. Commodities are the place to be for now
I have to believe Jay Powell is a student of history and not the classically trained Fed head, so I’m hoping this time will be different. That’s why it’s incredibly important Powell takes the first opportunity he can- maybe tomorrow - to clarify a range for neutrality, and let the market know the Fed won’t blow it…again.
@Jim in Minneapolis
How high will BRK.B shares go...
In at $64 a share...
Congratulations, Jim. I’m long on the stock as well but at a higher price. I’m not sure how high it goes, but Buffett just bought back a billion dollars in stocks, and the businesses are humming, especially in rails, where there is strong pricing power.
I got a ton of these wild questions and appreciate them. I will answer them and share the two stocks I just bought in my own account at www.wstreet.com
Oil & Energy Stocks
Hi Charles, what do you think of the energy market and oil stocks? Have a Blessed Day.
I’m really shocked crude oil has come down this much this fast – it’s remarkable. It wasn’t long ago, the conventional wisdom was shifting to West Texas Intermediate (WTI), climbing to $100.00. Now it’s threatening to crack under $60.00. The massive build of inventory in the United States has coincided with the recent pullback (see chart).
For long-term, I think crude will go back up, and I anticipate production cuts by Saudi Arabia and Russia to be announced soon.
I like dividend payers, Chevron (CVX) and Exxon Mobil (XOM) and Permian names like Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD) and Concho Resources Inc (CXO).
What’s on the horizon for Bonds? Also, opinion on annuities, please
I’m not an expert in annuities, but I warn everyone to be careful. I think there are better, more liquid investments for folks looking for income and security. I think bonds are going to continue to drift lower, and at some point, we could see that long-awaited Great Bond Rotation. That being said, depending on your investing objectives, there could be a role for bonds.
@Bunker Hill Bunny
#AskPayne Does a split Congress mean gridlock for the next two years? Nothing will get done and stocks will soar because Congress isn't meddling in the lives of average Americans.
The Democrats can give President Trump a hard time, but you’re right. They cannot stop the economic agenda. See my market commentary today for more.
What do you see for CBL??
The stock is down 90% from January 2015, and the earnings consensus for the next fiscal year continue to fall. I would avoid the stock – don’t see much for a long time as the bias is still to the downside.
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