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#Ask Payne? October 30, 2018

By Charles Payne, CEO & Principal Analyst

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#Ask Payne?  October 30, 2018

@Just Dawn

‏ Replying to @cvpayne @FoxBusiness

What’s up with crude?  😓

There are a lot of factors that determine crude oil price, including:

  • Geopolitics
  • U.S. Dollar
  • Demand
  • Supply

Supply has been a problem as U.S. inventory has increased by 28.7 million barrels since September 14th. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) peaked on October 3rd at $76.00. 


Replying to @cvpayne @FoxBusiness

Charles, what do you think about Square? Earnings and who might buy them?

I have traded Square (SQ) often. I probably will continue to look at the stock as a short-term vehicle because it’s so expensive by any valuation metric, and the 4.34 Beta underscores the wild volatility (usually, anything over 1.0 is considered volatile). I am not in it right now, but I am always looking. 

🎩MAD_Hatter 🎩


Replying to @cvpayne @FoxBusiness

Thanks! #AskPayne, what is your projection for the market as we close in on the midterm elections? Any feedback is much appreciated

We have already seen a lot of wild gyrations ahead of the midterms, in part to a variety of factors, including worries about the Democrats taking the Senate and the House. If it’s only the latter, then it could be a more circus-like atmosphere, but tax cuts and regulatory cuts remain in place. Let’s start focusing beyond the next week and even the rest of the year.

Historically, the market is up 15% the year after the midterms, and right now, the overall stock market is cheaper than its five-year average. 

💖Donna4Donald 💖 🇺🇸


Replying to @cvpayne @FoxBusiness

My son bought Amazon stock- he is only 18 - is this wise?

I think your son is a genius…for wanting to be an owner of a great American company. I bought my first mutual fund at 17 (my mom had to co-sign) and my first stock at 18. I hope he makes this a life-long endeavor.

I got an avalanche of questions yesterday - go to wstreet.com for more answers, and my market commentary, where I will break down Facebook and look to the rest of the week.


#AskPayne, Excuse my lack of sophistication in better understanding the Mechanics of investing. But I am in the market for the long term and believe that we are in the midst of a buying opportunity.  What are the “ABCs” of selecting a direction and picking a stock?

Well, you have to decide what you want to be. Trader? Investors? Or Both?  The mechanics from my point of view is to know the fundamentals. Right now, Americans are spending countless hours on their fantasy sports team. They know everything about the players, and I mean everything. Most don’t know the name of the funds in their own 401K, or what stocks they hold.

I encourage folks to be do-it-yourselves and commit to always knowing the fundamentals, and that will drive your mechanics.

@Diane Romeo

‏Replying to @cvpayne @FoxBusiness

So a few weeks ago I moved my investments into cash, how do I know when to move it back into the market?

Sounds like you are asking about picking the bottom. I’m not sure as a trader where you get in, but we offered several trading ideas to subscribers yesterday while keeping our powder dry on a longer-term buy-and-hold. I’m glad you asked because people often take money out and promise themselves they’ll “move it back into the market,” but never do.

There are a lot of great stocks that are very much oversold if you aren’t trying to pick the exact bottom.


‏Replying to @cvpayne @FoxBusiness

Sky is not falling all will be just fine.

The sky isn’t falling; in fact, there is a realignment in the market with respect to expectations and maybe beyond the performance-chasing that has ignored great stocks. Maybe, we’ll get a better balance in the market. For sure, this rally should continue, and only the Fed can truly derail it.


‏Replying to @cvpayne @FoxBusiness

Charles, please assure viewers of the OCTOBER FACTS. October (elections) tend to negatively affect the stock market. This past 5 weeks would have crushed any other nation. Our economy has and is withstanding a barrage of October shelling and in my opinion will rebound November.

October has a reputation for carnage, but it’s right in the middle historically with respect to returns. The problem has been those pesky crashes:

  • 1929
  • 1978
  • 1979
  • 1987
  • 1997

Interestingly, according to the Stock Market Almanac, election years are usually great for October, up 3.1% versus normal +0.6%. Of course, September is often the worst month of the year; this time, it was great.  Historical norms are more than trivia, but it also isn’t indicative of what might happen in any given year.


Charles Payne
Wall Street Strategies


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