6/16/2025
By John Jean, Research Analyst

More on the economic effects from the “potential agroterrorism weapon” crop-killing fungus smuggled into US:

1. Agroterrorism can lead to significant economic losses, potentially reaching billions of dollars.
2. These losses stem from direct damage to crops and livestock, disruption of trade, and increased costs of response and control. 
3. The toxic fungus involved can contaminate wheat, barley, maize and rice crops with a disease known as “head blight,” which is responsible for billions of dollars in economic losses worldwide each year, according to the Justice Department.
4. Sudden crop losses could also result in unemployment.
5. In the United States alone, outbreaks of this fungus have cost wheat and barley farmers an estimated $3 billion to $4 billion in losses since the 1990s.
6. In severe outbreak years, such as 1993 and 1998, affected regions saw yield losses of up to 50 percent in some wheat-growing areas.
7. “Agriculture is critical infrastructure,” Andrew Rose, strategic advisor to the food and agriculture supply chain, previously warned. “Three weeks without food and agriculture, and it’s over. You don’t mess with food and ag.”
8. Chinese national couple charged with smuggling crop-killing fungus into US: ‘Potential agroterrorism weapon’
9. FBI: Agroterrorism - Threats to America’s Economy and Food Supply
10. What Is Agroterrorism? Here’s Why The Smuggled Fungus In FBI’s Case Has Raised Alarms
11. Agro-Terrorism and the Food Supply Chain: This is a Different World, Rose Says

Agroterrorism is the deliberate use of biological, chemical, or radiological agents to damage a country's agricultural production or food supply system. It involves the intentional introduction of harmful agents, like animal or plant diseases, to create fear, cause economic losses, or destabilize society. This can include acts like contaminating crops or livestock with pathogens or disrupting food processing facilities.

Here's a more detailed breakdown:

Terrorists consider America’s agriculture and food production tempting targets. They have noticed that its food supply is among the most vulnerable and least protected of all potential targets of attack. When American and allied forces overran al Qaeda sanctuaries in the caves of eastern Afghanistan in 2002, among the thousands of documents they discovered were U.S. agricultural documents and al Qaeda training manuals targeting agriculture.

Agroterrorism is not new. The Assyrians poisoned enemy wells with rye ergot during the 6th century B.C. During World War I, German agents in the United States infected horses and cattle in transit across the Atlantic to France. In 1994, in The Dalles, Oregon, a religious cult intentionally contaminated 10 restaurant salad bars with salmonella, sickening more than 750 people in an attempt to influence the outcome of a local election. Since 1912, 12 documented cases have involved the substate use of pathogenic agents to infect livestock or contaminate food.

Companies That Could Benefit:

Corteva, Inc. (CTVA)

Corteva was founded in March 2018 as a subsidiary of DuPont and spun off as a public company in June 2019. They develop genetically modified and hybrid seeds, such as pest- and weather-resistant seeds, alongside crop protection products like herbicides, insecticides, and biologicals, as well as digital tools to optimize farm productivity and sustainability. One of their specialties is corn, which is one of the targets, among other cereal crops, from the current threat. Earlier this month, they announced a collaboration agreement with FMC to provide Fluindapyr fungicide technology to more domestic growers, with Corteva already announcing a new product using this fungicide in combination with others to boost efficiency. This positions them well to handle this current act of agroterrorism, as well as potential future waves.

The company is seeing better EPS surprise margins over the last 3 quarters. FY25 estimates have also risen above the company’s reiterated guidance as it could benefit from the current threat and further tariff deals.

Technically, the stock is above both the 50- and 200-day moving averages and making new highs.

FMC Corporation (FMC)

FMC Corporation was founded in 1883 as the Bean Spray Pump Company. They develop crop protection products including herbicides, insecticides, fungicides, and biologicals. They do not focus on genetically modified or hybrid seeds, instead emphasizing chemical and biological solutions for pest, weed, and disease control in target crops like corn and cereals, alongside digital tools like precision agriculture platforms to enhance farm productivity and sustainability. Their focus and inclusion in the collaboration agreement position them well to capitalize on this current agroterrorism event, as well as potential future waves. It is worth noting that this stock is a smaller cap, with a market cap of $5.46B.

While estimates have been moving lower, last quarter the company’s EPS surprise margin shot up and they reaffirmed Q2 guidance in line with estimates and FY25 EPS and revenue guidance above estimates.

Technically, the stock is down 8.78% year-to-date; however, shares have recently rallied and broke the 50 MA, as well as, a resistance level. Shares are still below 200 MA but could look to fill the February gap.

Nufarm Limited (NUFMF)

Nufarm Limited was founded in 1916 by Max Fremder in Melbourne, Australia, develops and manufactures crop protection products, including herbicides, insecticides, fungicides, and biologicals. Just like with the other two their products focus on corn and other cereals. They also have some seed technologies like high-yielding canola, sunflower, and sorghum seeds, but their focus is not on genetically modified seeds. The stock trades OTC since this year in the USA, but the company went public on the Australian exchange in 1988 under the ticker NUF (yahoo finance NUF.AX). Further use of agroterrorism remains a potential catalyst for the company as they are well prepared to help defend against these threats.

The stock is a small cap with a market capitalization of $857.88M. Management noted that H2’25 will depend on tariff developments as well as weather patterns. EPS Estimates have dipped lower as the company has more exposure to tariffs being based in Australia and recently reported disappointing results.

The stock took a beating after it missed both EPS and revenue last quarter as well as announcing it is reviewing its Seed Technologies segment in conjunction with UBS, with all options on the table.

Bayer Aktiengesellschaft (BAYRY)

Bayer Aktiengesellschaft was founded in 1863 and publicly listed with its American Depositary Receipts (ADRs) since 2007. While it is most famous for its pharmaceuticals and consumer health products, the company also entered the crop science solutions niche, with a significant focus on its Monsanto acquisition in June 2018 for $63 billion, which bolstered its seed and pesticide portfolio. The Monsanto side specializes in genetically modified seeds and crop protection products, notably the herbicide Roundup (glyphosate), though it has faced extensive litigation over alleged cancer links, leading to billions in settlements. Bayer integrates Monsanto’s agricultural innovations with its own digital farming tools and chemical solutions to support global farmers. Despite ongoing legal and financial challenges from the merger, they could benefit from a rise in agroterrorism by developing resistance crops and other crop protection products as they are a key player in this market.

During the last report the company beat both top and bottom lines, while slightly lowering its revenue guidance in range with current estimates, but did note they expect revenue to come in on the upper end of guidance. In addition, they lowered EBITDA guidance due to legal risks. EPS estimates had been trending lower, but got a recent bump over 7 days.

Technically, the stock is up 63.11% year to date and approaching its prior 52 week high at $8.58. The stock is above both the 200- and 50-day moving averages, which recently formed a golden cross (shorter MA moving above longer MA).

John Jean
Wall Street Strategies

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