Week in Review, January 25
After a historic 35 day shutdown, President Trump announced a temporary deal to reopen the government till February 15 while to allow for a long term deal to be reached.
Themes and thoughts on the week:
Monday: Markets closed for MLK Day.
Tuesday: News of slower economic growth overseas pressured U.S. futures premarket. The Dow opened lower by 100 and moved lower, 285 points, from there. The markets took another leg down after it was reported that the U.S. had rejected a Chinese offer for preparatory talks ahead of next week’s negotiations. At the worst levels of the day, the Dow was lower by over 450 points. Buyers stepped in at the end of the day, the Dow closed lower by 300 points, 1.2%.
China reported GDP increased 6.6%, which was the lowest in 28 years, markets are expecting more stimulus.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) updated its global growth estimates with a big decline to 3.5% from 3.7%, as the euro area growth was lowered to 1.6% from October’s estimate of 1.9%. Germany is really taking a significant haircut to an 1.3% growth rate in 2019 from the 1.9% estimate just three months ago. The United States and China’s growth estimates were unchanged
Existing home sales decreased 6.4% month-over-month in December. Total sales were 10.3% lower than the same period a year ago.
Wednesday: Dow futures pointed to a 200-point gain pre-market on the back of earnings from Proctor Gamble (PG), IBM and UTX. Markets drifted lower after the open with the Dow declining 100 points, finding support near Tuesdays low @ 24,307 before rallying into the close. The Dow closed near where it started the day, higher by 171 points @ 24,575.
Thursday: The Dow opened flat and drifted lower throughout the day, finding support above its 50-day moving average (24,241). Markets were flat on the day. Semiconductors and airlines were Thursday’s leaders.
Commerce Secretary Ross' contention that we are "miles and miles" from resolving China trade issues tried to spoke the market. ECB President Draghi's stated that significant stimulus is still needed, and the preliminary manufacturing PMI readings for January out of the eurozone and Japan that showed a slowdown from December.
Semiconductors were higher following stellar earnings from Xilinx (XLNX, +16.5%), Texas Instruments (TXN, +6.5%), Lam Research (LRCX, +15%), Teradyne (TER, +4.8%) and STMicroelectronics (STM, +11%)
Airlines were flying high on the tails of earnings from American Airlines (AAL, +4.9%), Southwest Air (LUV, +4.5%), and JetBlue (JBLU, +5.0%) all beat earnings estimates and provided better guidance.
McCormick (MKC, -13%) was the biggest loser, continuing a slide that actually began in December after the stock rallied 50% for 2018.
The index of leading economic indicators (LEI) declined for the second time in three months. Jobless claims fell below 200,000 for the first time in close to 50 years.
Friday: Dow futures were indicated higher at the open, +100 points, among speculation the Fed may pause or alter its quantitative tightening program at next week’s policy meeting. The Dow traded as high as 24,860, +300 points (1.22%), before running into resistance and profit taking heading into the weekend. The Dow closed higher by 184 points, 0.75%, at 24,737.
News that President Trump adviser, Roger Stone, was arrested and charged with seven counts sent the USD into a spiral. A weaker dollar gave a bid to equities and metals. Silver rallied over 2%, gold was higher by 1.4% and copper 3%.
The company's rationale doesn't jive with some other chip names that have reported. We would rather take the hit and find an idea that works quickly to make it up.
On the week: Equities ended the week on a strong note. It was a seesaw week that saw the markets end near where they started. Investors are weighing upbeat earnings against the potential of slowing economic growth.
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