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Afternoon Note

Shiny New Wheels

By Charles Payne, CEO & Principal Analyst
1/4/2017 1:57 PM

Car manufactures have been rolling out their annual sales numbers and for the most part have been strong and beating expectations.  If December ends up positive, this could be the 7th year in a row that U.S. auto sales have been up, something not seen since the early 1920. Some economist are predicting that 2016 could hit record highs. In 2015, 17.5 million cars and trucks were sold, and expectations are that sales could increased to 17.7 million annual units in December.

 
One thing to watch however is how much incentives and inventory are increasing. Then there is the Trump effect and how potential tariffs might future sales.  Plus, in 2017 interest rates will be rising and thus may impact future demand and sales.

The major indices are in the green again for the second trading day of the New Year.  This could be a good omen as the old Wall Street adage says so goes January so goes the year, which historically has been correct 74% of the time.  The Dow is 75 points away from 20,000.  Key resistance level is 19,974 with support around 19,934.   Not sure 20,000 happens today, but we are getting closer.

Advancers are leading decliners 2506/467 on the NYSE and 2341/604 on the Nasdaq.  Volumes are still light. 

 


Comments
Based on my 35 years in the Auto industry as a dealer for MB, BMW, Porsche, Bentley and Rolls Royce I can tell you the industry has and always will have cyclic sin curve to it's sales. As you mentioned watch the incentives which OEMS are paying out which are very much higher then 2015 and have been rising this year. The last 7 years were the result of a large build of old age cars on the road and the replacement of them. That has flattened out and the rising prices have begun to impact sales. Also remember the lack of income growth in the USA! Gov't regs have begun to accelerate prices also! Result the coming year is going to be a BIG challenge so check the incentive levels in the spring and if they are rising short the OEM stocks my opinion!

Tom Claridge on 1/4/2017 3:20:37 PM
I think dealers have come up with more creative ways to finance vehicles. It's almost like the housing situation was recently. People are buying vehicles they can't afford. I believe the bubble will burst and sales will fall... just like housing.

Robert Ritz on 1/4/2017 4:03:45 PM
 

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