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Afternoon Note

Optimism Continues

By Charles Payne, CEO & Principal Analyst
11/29/2016 1:43 PM

Echoing results seen in the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey, Consumer Confidence from the Conference Board soared to its highest level since a 111.9 reading in July 2007.  At 107.1, the November level is a significant improvement from October (100.8) and well above consensus of 101.2.

Confidence improvement, driven by a big improvement in present conditions, but an even more impressive percentage gain in expectations, belie media headlines that the result is occurring “despite the surprise Donald Trump victory.” The survey cut-off was November 15, so I think it’s more of a reflection on the election outcome than USA Today headlines would admit.

Consumer Confidence

November

October

Headline

107.1

100.8

Present Conditions

130.3

123.1

Expectations

91.7

86.0

 
The report hints at an uptick for business in general with responses to these key questions:

Jobs ‘plentiful’ nudged higher to 26.9 from 26.5; although, there was no change in the response to ‘hard to get’ which remained at a read of 21.7.

We also got the latest Case Shiller report, which shows that home prices continued their upward momentum in September, with the annual National index gaining 5.5% in September, up from 5.1%.  This reading exceeds July 2006 when the housing boom peaked. The 20-City Composite was unchanged at 5.1% and the 10-City Composite was up 4.3% compared to 4.2% last month. 

Another day of rotation as financials and healthcare rebound.  Perhaps, the appointment of Tom Price, Trump’s pick for Secretary of Health and Human Services has a hand in this.  He has long been a critic of the Obamacare, and has proposed his own plan called the Empowering Patients First Act, which focuses on value based payments and tax credits to help offset insurance premiums.  Furthermore, he is a huge proponent of changing Medicare to a voucher system and giving states more control of Medicaid.  

The market is grudgingly embracing the latest economic news in a way that suggest guarded optimism.  It can be the start of something very powerful and justify near-term interest rate hikes.

The economy has all the makings of a locomotive and just needs to be stoked with enthusiasm and smart decisions. 


Comments
Very well written with exceptionally good perception which provides for balance in understanding accurately, the current conditions in the market, economy and media. Thank you Charles!

Bill Baumner on 11/29/2016 2:18:00 PM
 

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