"I worked hard with Bill Ford to keep the Lincoln plant in Kentucky. I owed it to the great State of Kentucky for their confidence in me!"

"He will be keeping the Lincoln plant in Kentucky - no Mexico"

-Donald Trump Tweets

The news that Ford Motor isn’t moving production at the Louisville Lincoln plant to Mexico is being greeted as a political coup for President-elect Donald Trump, but it’s a small battle in a larger war.

Ford faces a dilemma of having to compete against rivals that are populating Mexico with plants to take advantage of not only cheaper labor cost, but Mexico’s (40) free-trade agreements that allow duty-free access to the largest export markets in the world.  (Europe has a 10% duty on U.S. car imports and 22% for trucks, including pickups.)

Even before Thursday night’s tweet, Ford had pledged not to close any U.S. plants through 2019 when its contract with United Auto Workers expires. Moreover, Mark Fields, CEO of Ford, just reiterated on Tuesday that the company will move small car production to Mexico. He also pleaded that the current Michigan factories will stay open and will focus on different products.

The dilemma is centered on small cars where profit margins are thin as demand continues to dwindle.  It’s somewhat ironic that Donald Trump’s energy plan may cap the price of crude, keeping the pressure on small car sales while pickup trucks and SUVs bring in the big bucks and the profits. But not all versions of SUVs fly out dealer lots and that’s the problem with the Louisville Kentucky plant in question.

The plant makes the Lincoln MKC SUV; Ford has only sold 20,000 this year, versus 258,000 Escapes that were snapped up by customers.

The whole American Car issue has become even murkier because so many foreign automakers have operations in the United States.  According to Cars.com, there are only eight ‘American Made’ cars with at least 75% of parts made domestically – only three names are from the so-called Detroit’s Big Three:

1. Toyota Camry

2.  Honda Accord

3. Toyota Sienna

4. Honda Odyssey

5. Honda Pilot

6. Chevrolet Traverse

7. GMC Acadia

8. Buick Enclave

I am not sure how this will all play out because there are several issues and components to a partial solution. 

Automobiles can never be made cheaper in America than in Mexico, but the fact of the matter is that Canada is the number one importer of cars and light trucks into America (Mexico and Japan are two and three). This is about more than just labor.

I suspect lower taxes, fewer regulations, and other economic incentives will help immensely – I don’t think a tariff on individual companies is the answer. Ford enjoyed a major advantage over rivals for not accepting bailout funds, so Ford understands the power of looking patriotic. 

One thing we must understand is that we are the greatest nation with the most robust economy (even with the flaccid recovery) in the world.  There are options and by the same token, we want to profit off a growing middle-class around the planet as well. 

On that note, I suspect the tide of jobs leaving America is over. However, I am not sure how many will come back – many will.

Market Action

The market coasted into the weekend; it has been an eventful couple of weeks, and I think it is poised to continue.

Money has to pour out of equity mutual funds all year long, but the last three weeks has also seen the Great Bond rotation in action. Five years after it was predicted, $38 billion has gone into exchange-traded funds (ETFs) as $12.5 billion was taken from mutual funds. Investors are getting hip to the higher fees and the false diversification of mutual funds.

Bond yields continue to march higher, finishing Friday’s session at the highest levels of the year but well below high points in recent years.

I think the move continues, but not at the same breakneck pace. Meanwhile, stocks mostly marked its time consolidating gains while holding at new support points. Investors have to feel great as the runway is clear for takeoff.  Speaking of which, it is obvious individual investors are back as the Russell 2000 has been on fire- up 13% since November 4,  and more than 6% in the past three months.

After the close on Friday, Facebook (FB) announced a $6.0 billion stock buyback, and it could help tech regain its equilibrium next week. 

Today’s Session

I’m watching the continued rebound in crude oil, getting a lift this morning from comments from Russia's President Putin on capping his countries production at 11 million barrels per day.  It’s likely some OPEC nations will reduce production but allow Iran to simply cap its output.  There have been a lot of false alarms, but each feels like a stepping stone to an eventual deal.

Comments

Isn't 11 MBD by Russia about their max capacity so it really isn't a sacrifice by Putin but, a hope the story line will lift crude prices. Probably crude will settle in somewhere between 50-52 for the Garro on 11/21/2016 10:52:41 AM

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