In 1849, Henry David Thoreau released Resistance to Civil Government, more commonly known as ‘Civil Disobedience.’ It underscored the abolitionist’s disdain for slavery and war.  There are several parts of this essay that rang loud and clear on Monday, including the following notions:

• ‘The best government is that which governs least’
• ‘The government is the agent of corruption and injustice’
• ‘It is not too soon for honest men to rebel and revolutionize’

However, the line from Thoreau that has stayed with me most has never been more reflective of today’s society:

“The mass of men lead lives of quiet desperation. What is called resignation is confirmed desperation.”

Thoreau believed that supporting an unjust government made citizens just as culpable in the government misdeeds. And yet, he understood how helpless regular folks felt with respect to their ability to dictate change. Their resignation or acceptance was a form of confirmed desperation.

It would be easier to count how many Americans these days aren’t living in quiet desperation. What is interesting this time around is that Thoreau is largely a hero to the left; he may be speaking for   Republican and Independent voters in 2016 as well.

In a so-called change election, how far out of their character or wisdom will voters go to do desperate things?

Market

The market came out the gate yesterday with a bit of Merger-Monday gusto. This has been the case for some time without any follow-through.  With that being said, technology was the real star of the session. While mega-names like Alphabet (GOOGL), Microsoft (MSFT), and Facebook (FB) are getting all the ink, second-tier names are setting the pace, including Qorvo (QRVO), a name all viewers of my show know and probably own from the merger of RF Micro Devices and TriQuint.  

There is going to be a lot more consolidation in the tech arena, and it’s those smaller names that will be huge winners.Of course, that is if either administration allows mergers to happen anymore.  Over the weekend, Donald Trump said he would block the AT&T/Time Warner deal, echoing the thoughts of Bernie Sanders and others. I think it’s a huge mistake for the government to interfere in these deals.

In fact, I think the position of the new GOP will actually make it easier for a Clinton presidency to usher in conscious capitalism. This essentially puts making profits behind other things such as employees, the environment, and other corporate responsibilities. I say let free markets be free markets, and an AT&T/Time Warner deal does not pose any threats to the consumer or their liberty.

Meanwhile, Microsoft finally eclipsed its 2000 high point last week. However, the S&P Tech Sector (XLK) has a long way to go to duplicate that re-test, its year 2000 high point. On March 1, 2000, the index high was 65 and closed at 60.56.  For now, the index breaks out through 48.00.  I think it would be a tradeable move that would trigger short covering and fresh buying.

Today’s Session

The market is looking to open flat, although most of the big-name earnings releases crushed consensus. I think this signals a potential inflection point in the longer string of declining earnings.

Winners:

• General Motors
• Proctor & Gamble
• Merck
• United Technologies

Losers:

• CAT (we sent an alert)
• WHR (we took profits last month)
• UA (we took profits and kept asking folks to stay away)

The ranged bound market not moved by takeover mania or earnings is problematic, but I will not read too deeply into it as we have certain macro parameters, and of course, we always focus on individual opportunities and not the so-called market.