Market Commentary
Oil leads the way higher today after Russian President Putin said that he hoped OPEC would support the cap on output in November and that Russia is ready to join them. Oil has hit new high for the year today on the news, trading up over 3% (high of the day $51.60). $51.50 is a huge breakout point for crude. A clearer picture of an agreement along with expressions of cooperation is giving traders more confidence that an OPEC deal will be done in November and honored.
Motivation to cap output and prop up oil prices has never been stronger. In recent months, Saudi Arabia is showing the strain of lower oil prices. The GDP is contracting, foreign reserves have dropped by billions ($6 billion in July) and budget deficits are beginning to produce real consequences. Cost cutting measures in September had the Saudis cutting ministry budgets by a quarter and considering cancelling $20 billion in projects in an attempt to repair the damage caused by low oil prices.
Over the weekend in the Middle East, Houthi Shiite rebels fired missiles from rebel-held territory in Yemen. The missiles were fired at an American destroyer in the Red Sea and a Saudi air base near Mecca. The rebel action signals increasing geopolitical risk and underscores the fact that Saudi Arabia may need and want higher oil prices.
The energy sector is up 1.62% with technology in second place up .8%. The NASDAQ is on the verge of a breakout to a new 52-week high through 5,342 just a few points away. The Dow and S&P 500 are breaking above their recent consolidation ranges with some room to move to the upside.
There were no economic data releases today and none on the slate for tomorrow. Overall volume is light today being Columbus Day.
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