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Afternoon Note

Debate Jitters

By Charles Payne, CEO & Principal Analyst
9/26/2016 1:29 PM

The market is selling off a bit today ahead of the presidential debate.  Uncertainty is leading to some profit taking as the "unknowns" weigh. The major indexes have pulled back to familiar support levels above 18,000 on the Dow and 2100 on the S&P.  In addition to the debate, there is the OPEC meeting, which started today in Algeria, and unsettling news out of Germany on Deutsche Bank.  These are contributing to bond yields drifting again, with the 10 year at 1.58%.

Oil is trading up as much as 4% today after encouraging comments from the Algerian energy minister gave investors hope that a deal to limit output was still on the table. There is still plenty of skepticism that there will be any deal at all, and given the complexity of the problem and lack of consensus, that skepticism seems warranted.

Deutsche Bank is hitting new all-time lows after German Chancellor Angela Merkel declined to bail the bank out of its anticipated settlement with the U.S. Dept of Justice over trades in mortgage backed securities. The bank says it has money or resources to pay the US $14 billion fine. I'm not sure, but it is obvious the Street is concerned with that and other issues about DB's capital position. There are always worries about a chain of events, perhaps even a Lehman moment. I don't see that happening, but it's a drag and additional unknown on the market.

On the housing front, new home sales fell 7.6% in August to 609,000. The drop was the highest single-month drop since September 2015, however year over year, sales are up 20%. July’s revision rose from 654,000 to 659,000. The median price for a new house dropped $8,000 this month to $284.000.   Current supply increased to 4.6 months from 4.2 in July.  The housing market continues to strengthen overall during a tightening labor market that is pushing up wages.


 

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