Stocks are lower today while the Street waits for the FOMC minutes to be released at 2pm.  With some Fed officials signaling a hike is warranted, traders will be looking to game the likelihood of a September or December hike. December remains the more likely scenario with CME FedWatch looking at only an 18% expectation of a September hike.

From the July statement:

"Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Janet L. Yellen, Chair; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Lael Brainard; James Bullard; Stanley Fischer; Loretta J. Mester; Jerome H. Powell; Eric Rosengren; and Daniel K. Tarullo. Voting against the action was Esther L. George, who preferred at this meeting to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 1/2 to 3/4 percent."

The dollar is creeping higher and gold is trading lower ahead of the Fed minutes, after hawkish comments from Dudley and Lockhart, along with the potential for more surprises in the Fed minutes. The dollar was up against other currencies after bouncing off lows against the yen and euro.

Oil bounced back into the green briefly today after data from the EIA came in showing stockpiles falling for the first time in 4 weeks. US crude inventories dropped by 2.5 million barrels and gasoline fell by 2.7 million barrels. Support at $45 is still holding, but optimism is tempered by doubts that agreement can be reached on output.

On the housing front, mortgage loan application volumes, refinance and purchase applications all decreased 4% on a seasonally adjusted basis for the weekend ending August 12 from the prior week according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey.   Refinance applications were 62.6% of total applications, up from 62.4 thanks to continued low interest rates. Thirty year fixed rate mortgages on loans of $417,000 or less dropped to 3.64% from 3.65%.

The major indexes are down about .5% across the board ahead of the Fed minutes. Market internals reflect some profit taking with NYSE decliners at 68% on down volume of 78%. The Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLF) is off a fraction, with banks sure to be the beneficiaries of a hawkish Fed. The XLF has found support at the May highs around 23.75.