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Market Commentary

Market Looking and Waiting for Yellen Spark

By Charles Payne, CEO & Principal Analyst
6/21/2016 12:38 PM

 All eyes have been on Fed Chair Janet Yellen this morning and it’s been like watching a high wire act- without a net.

Excerpts from Yellen’s prepared comments:

Current Economic Situation and Outlook
Since my last appearance before this Committee in February, the economy has made further progress toward the Federal Reserve's objective of maximum employment. And while inflation has continued to run below our 2 percent objective, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) expects inflation to rise to that level over the medium term. However, the pace of improvement in the labor market appears to have slowed more recently, suggesting that our cautious approach to adjusting monetary policy remains appropriate.

The FOMC continues to anticipate that economic conditions will improve further and that the economy will evolve in a manner that will warrant only gradual increases in the federal funds rate. In addition, the Committee expects that the federal funds rate is likely to remain, for some time, below the levels that are expected to prevail in the longer run because headwinds--which include restraint on U.S. economic activity from economic and financial developments abroad, subdued household formation, and meager productivity growth--mean that the interest rate needed to keep the economy operating near its potential is low by historical standards.

Testimony

The question and answer period is where all the headlines happen.  Thus far, there haven’t been bombshells; it’s clear the Fed doesn’t have a handle on the true health of this economy.  Although, Yellen spent a fair amount of time overlooking the “negatives.”

Many are concerned about the so-called Brexit, to which Yellen commented: “a UK vote to exit the European Union could have significant economic repercussions.”  She later reiterated a leave vote “could” harm markets, but she stopped short of saying it would cause a recession.


 

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