Morning Commentary
Despite coming in better-than-expected, the ISM Non-Manufacturing (service economy) report could move the needle on the first quarter 2016 (1Q16) Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Actually, it is pathetic how low the estimate has drifted. It’s not the stuff of interest rate hikes, but it’s also not the kind of backbone needed for the start of a real economically driven rally.
1Q16 GDP Model |
||
March Date |
Data Source |
Estimate |
3 |
ISM Non-Manufacturing |
2.0% |
4 |
Jobs Report |
2.2% |
9 |
Wholesale Trade |
2.2% |
10 |
Monthly Treasury Statement |
2.3% |
15 |
Retail Sales |
1.9% |
16 |
Housing Starts |
1.9% |
21 |
Existing Home Sales |
1.7% |
23 |
New Home Sales |
1.6% |
24 |
Durable Goods |
1.4% |
28 |
GDP, Personal Income & Spending |
0.6% |
April 1 |
Jobs Report |
0.7% |
4 |
Auto Sales & Manufacturing |
0.4% |
5 |
ISM Non-Manufacturing |
0.4% |
Atlanta Federal Reserve |
JOLTS
The Jobs Openings report was a mixed bag at best. Openings slipped, but quits increased oddly in sectors where openings declined; it’s not supposed to work that way. However, this is an important component of Janet Yellen’s dashboard, and there were no blinking lights to speed up or to slow down.
JOLTS Report |
Openings |
Quits |
||
February |
January |
February |
January |
|
Total Private |
4,960 |
5,137 |
2,791 |
2,684 |
Construction |
193 |
157 |
11 |
19 |
Manufacturing |
313 |
336 |
156 |
147 |
Financial Activity |
328 |
372 |
125 |
111 |
Education |
1,031 |
1,129 |
371 |
343 |
It was an ugly session that lacked leadership, marred by an extension of the war on business with President Obama going after inversions. Now, there is talk about halting the Halliburton – Baker Hughes merger.
Stay Tuned…
Election 2016
Last night frontrunners in both parties suffered major losses in Wisconsin, adding to the complex nature of this year’s contest. Wisconsin has a great track record of picking the GOP nominee, so maybe Ted Cruz is right about this being the ‘turning point.’
Wisconsin Picks Nominee |
||
Year |
Winner |
Percent |
1968 |
Nixon |
80% |
1972 |
Nixon |
97% |
1976 |
Ford |
55% |
1980 |
Reagan |
40% |
1984 |
Reagan |
95% |
1988 |
George HW Bush |
82% |
1992 |
George HW Bush |
76% |
1996 |
Bob Dole |
52% |
2000 |
George H Bush |
69% |
2004 |
George H Bush |
99% |
2008 |
McCain |
55% |
2012 |
Romney |
44% |
There is so much at stake with this election that will impact not only the nation’s economic standing and potential but your 401K, too.
Today’s Session
Oil is getting a boost from a surprise drawdown in data out late yesterday, but equity futures are drifting to open unchanged as the Obama administration’s War on Business has resulted in the official breaking up of PFE/AGN deal, and scuttlebutt about a lawsuit to break up the HAL/BHI proposed merger.
Comments |
Trump has probably used the word "love" more often than any other candidate in history; in fact, more than all other candidates ever. I think that confirms his desperate need for approval. Like a lot of other bullies, he's really a weak man inside. Kasich is his best hope for denying Cruz a clear victory. No wonder George Soros gave Kasich a big donation on the order of $250K. I've heard that Trump isn't simply spending his own money on the campaign, but lending it to the campaign, expecting to be paid back when the RNC kicks in if he becomes the nominee. Some responsible journalist needs to check that one out. Dennis Howard on 4/6/2016 10:47:41 AM |
Chas; more and more of small business is moving into off the books transactions. Trades, cash under the table, and barter are becoming the norm. 10% sales taxes, high credit card fees, state and local license fees, mandatory insurance costs, and IRS scrutiny of deductible claims, etc. are some of the causes. There are many others. z on 4/6/2016 10:58:46 AM |
If we don't respect ourselves, there's no reason why these caricatures seeking our vote should present themselves with respect for our best interests. Aarrrgh! Patricia Flynn on 4/6/2016 4:18:16 PM |
I would have to hold my nose to vote for Cruze (Trump or Kasich are my top picks, in that order). Bonnie Webb on 4/12/2016 7:19:14 PM |
2016 winning ticket: TRUMP/CRUZ Best of both candidates. What sweet justice to have Cruz preside over senate and have Trump's ear for Judicial and Supreme Court nominations. Daria Schooler on 4/13/2016 3:04:58 PM |
Hoping for Trump to run the government like a profitable business. Get rid of deficit spending! Eldin Fisher on 4/18/2016 7:33:42 PM |
If the anti-trump groups keep stacking the deck like in the closed delegate voting Colorado and Wyoming(they chose only delegates for Cruz) I think the Trump followers won't vote which would be a disaster. I know I won't. Joan Dearborn on 4/19/2016 9:49:18 AM |
Tweet |
4/26/2024 1:46 PM | Full Steam |
4/26/2024 9:39 AM | BIG TECH STEPS UP |
4/25/2024 1:16 PM | Don't' Bury me, Yet! |
4/25/2024 9:27 AM | THERE CAN ONLY BE ONE |
4/24/2024 1:30 PM | Earnings Flood In |
4/24/2024 9:26 AM | BUYING THE DIP |
4/23/2024 1:25 PM | Bloom Off Rose |
4/23/2024 9:32 AM | WHAT HAPPENED TO THE BRAVADO? |
4/22/2024 1:22 PM | Pins and Needles |
4/22/2024 9:30 AM | LIVE BY THE SWORD … |
4/19/2024 1:20 PM | Fair Chunk of Rotation |
4/19/2024 9:35 AM | DON’T OVERREACT |
4/18/2024 1:37 PM | Didn’t Break Down |
4/18/2024 9:40 AM | MARKET OFF SCRIPT |
4/17/2024 1:59 PM | Facing Pressure |
4/17/2024 9:37 AM | POWELL STILL WANTS TO HELP |
4/16/2024 1:35 PM | Muted |
4/16/2024 9:42 AM | FEAR ARRIVES |
4/15/2024 1:17 PM | Making a Statement |
4/15/2024 9:45 AM | Equal Opportunity Drubbing |
4/12/2024 1:37 PM | Pressure Overall |
4/12/2024 9:42 AM | WHO YA GONNA CALL? |
4/11/2024 1:38 PM | No Urgency |
4/11/2024 9:27 AM | Tough Sledding |
4/10/2024 1:22 PM | Hang In There |
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