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Afternoon Note

Falling Knife

By Charles Payne, CEO & Principal Analyst
2/5/2016 2:04 PM

The jobs report this morning has the market in a complete downward spiral.  The report was mixed in that the jobs added fell below expectations, but the unemployment rate fell to 4.9%, and wages rose 0.5 percent.  In addition, average hours worked and labor force participation are all up in the past month. The report has spurred speculation again about a potential March Fed rate hike and the question as to how many hikes we will see in 2016.  The dollar rallied and US Treasuries declined on the report.

We got the latest rig count from Baker Hughes that showed a decline of 31 rigs to 467.  A year ago, the rig count was 1140.  This is a 60% decline.  The news caused oil to go up but, it’s back down again.  WTI is trading around $31.60.   The Obama administrator has a new proposal to charge oil companies a $10 per barrel tax to help pay for infrastructure improvements.  Have they noticed the price of a barrel of oil?  This proposal would go directly to the consumer and might as well be a tax.  The chances of this passing are nil, but the absurdity of it shows just how much this administration is out of touch with reality.

The markets are all down significantly. The Nasdaq has been hit the hardest and was down about 3%.  There is absolutely no mercy for stocks that are not living up to analyst expectations.  LinkedIn (LNKD) reported a good quarter, but there guidance was week.  The stock is being severely punished and is down over 42%.  But even companies such as Facebook and Alphabet (aka Google) that reported blow out earnings are being crushed.  Tableau Software (DATA) missed on its earnings and gave weak guidance due to a tougher spending environment by enterprise businesses and the stock is down 48% to an all-time low.  This news is taking the entire cloud computing space with it, and questions the state of businesses and the economy.

There are more and more great opportunities brewing, but there is no reason to try and catch a falling knife at this point.  Have a good weekend and enjoy the Super Bowl 50.


Comments
4.9% unemployment... NOT!

Barry Gold on 2/5/2016 2:23:57 PM
".....but the absurdity of it shows just how much this administration is out of touch with reality."
I think they are in another Universe!

Tom Holcomb on 2/5/2016 4:45:53 PM

These folks believe that merely speaking a wish makes it a reality. They are in dreamland ... did you know that smoking marijuana causes an eight point drop in IQ? AND the newer varieties of marijuana are many times more potent than the older varieties?

P.S.
"But their guidance was weak"

Al M. on 2/6/2016 10:02:25 AM
It is the universe of Saul Alinsky .... All control freaks in the administration love his gangster logic.---It is working on the uninformed.

john cowger on 2/6/2016 12:02:26 PM
 

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