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Afternoon Note

Marching On

By Charles Payne, CEO & Principal Analyst
11/18/2015 2:09 PM

The resolve of the markets continues in light of the latest developments in Paris with at least two more dead, including a woman who blew herself up.  Despite all of this, the markets remain in the green and the DOW is up for the third straight day.

U.S. crude fell below $40 today even though inventories were moderately bullish with a smaller than expected build.  But analyst believe that large global supplies will continue to keep pressure on pricing.  Crude inventories rose to 487.3 million barrels up 252,000 from last week.  Analyst had expected an increase of 1.9 million barrels. Stockpiles of 490.9 million barrels are at record highs.  Brent was down as well to $43.46.   Between the demand slowdown and oversupply, it appears we will continue to a have protracted period of lower prices.

We received another read on the consumer and housing.  Mortgage applications increased 6.2% in the last week.  Purchase applications were up 12% from the prior week and 19% from this time last year, as the shift from cash purchases to mortgage dependent buyers’ increases.  Refinance applications were up 2% as more people are locking in before the anticipated rate hike.

The Commerce Department also released data on the US housing market.  Housing starts fell to a seven month low for single family homes, the lowest read since March, to annual pace of 1.06 million units.  The South saw a decline of 6.9%, and an increase in the Northeast, Midwest and West.  However, October marked the 7th month that housing starts remained above 1 million.  September was also revised lower to 1.19 million.  The data points to a housing market recovery that is sustainable as the labor market gets stronger and more adults leave the comforts of their parent’s basements.   Multi-family starts declined to 338,000-unit pace, a whopping 25.1%.

Building permits increased last month 1.15 million-unit rate up 4.1 percent. Single-family building permits were up 2.4 percent, highest level since December 2007.  Multi-family building permits increased 6.8 percent.


Comments
The EKG of Weekly Mortgage Application hovers around the flat line except for a couple of jolts. I am not enough of a wonk to know whether the permits and starts have mortgages attached or not, but I am fairly confident that when the newspaper headline is "The FED raises interest rates" mortgage applications could vault higher. In as much as the expression from 1929, "He who reads headlines, ends up selling newspapers" reflected the result of bad decisions, this headline could spur people into action and probably a correct action with, in may cases, a PITI less that comparable rent.
When crude oil stocks began to grow and prices decline and this cycle continued, the conclusion I have come to is that the "strong hand" players in the physicals markets, in the Middle East, that they knew was bad and that value would be had in owning the physical. Perhaps what they did not anticipate was the absence of military response from the West which would have dramatically cut supplies from that area. So, the lower prices go and the more stocks build, the stronger hands it falls into. This week's smaller than anticipated increase may just mean that there is no where else to put it. Is there an empty tanker afloat anywhere? Maybe not. If there is a small draw down of stocks next week, then somebody got to offload and now there is an empty tanker. Perhaps a bit too simplistic, but who knows?

Jerald Lenz on 11/18/2015 5:27:16 PM
 

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