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Question of the Week

Do you think the Fed made the right decision to NOT raise rates?
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Morning Commentary

Chew on This

By Charles Payne, CEO & Principal Analyst
9/18/2015 8:51 AM

Markets continue to chew on the Fed's decision not to hike rates and the dovish comments regarding market volatility and global economic concerns. There was a late day sell-off which was not a big surprise with the market being at a 3 week high after running up into the decision. In reality, the reaction to the announcements was fairly tame.  The VIX also known as "the fear index" was down a bit at 21.14 in the range of previous highs indicating the market is returning to normal conditions.

After an initial ambivalent reaction to the announcement, markets have started to digest Yellen statements and futures point to a sharp drop at the open.  Relief that monetary policy making hasn't turned into a political football doesn't outweigh concerns about "heightened uncertainties abroad". But, encouraging comments about employment, albeit labor participation rates are still below trend, and a clear message about low inflation gave the market something to cheer about post-announcement.  But now what?  Is low inflation really something to cheer about?

Markets will continue to focus their attentions on when exactly the fed will begin to rate hikes. It looks more and more likely that a rate hike is out until 2016.  This Saturday, two regional Fed presidents will speak and others will follow next week.  The real positive in all of this may turn out to be a weaker dollar, combined with cheap oil will start to show up as strength in corporate earnings.

Today's Session

Today is quadruple witching with a variety of options expirations which is always a day marked by volatility and unexplained moves. It seems rather appropriate following the gaming of the FOMC announcement.

We get the August index of leading economic indicators report from the Conference Board at 10 am, which is anticipated to be up 0.1 percent following a 0.2 percent decline in July.  We also get the weekly rig count report that looks at current exploration, and crude and Natural Gas development in the U.S. and Canada from oil services giant Baker Hughes at 1 pm.

Gold is hitting a two week high, the dollar is lower, and bond yields have dropped since the Fed’s announcement.  Futures are continuing to deteriorate.


Comments
What now? Lay low until the next FED meeting? Where's the new bottom? This is ridiculous, you the media have a lot to do with these wild swings, you blow the FED events out of proportion, yesterday FOX News primary focus was the FED, with a bunch of special reports and bla bla bla. Time to stop, we need more common sense here. Back to my original question, what now?

marco on 9/18/2015 11:11:09 AM
Free Markets work best for all --- including gov. We are all stuck with the fed. and D.C. ---Keep doing your best.

john cowger on 9/18/2015 11:22:20 AM
Now we watch the government shutdown over Budget...

Charles Duckworth on 9/18/2015 12:18:46 PM
Maybe if they had raised it 1/8 of a point it would have shown some real confidence in the economy.

Rodman Johnson on 9/18/2015 12:20:33 PM
Maybe we should re-evaluate the controlling role of the Fed?

Begs on 9/18/2015 1:28:28 PM
I am really surprised that nearly 80% think that raising rates would better serve the economy.
I'm in the minority, scratching my head, because I simply do not understand how the higher cost of borrowing would be good for business and consumers.
Would someone please explain?

Regards,
Norm

Norm on 9/18/2015 1:31:22 PM
I think that getting the 1st rate hike out of the way was more important than anything else. TOO much time is being spent on out guessing the FED!! I think a 1/8 to 1/4 raise with a comment that they would evaluate the next raise in 6 months would of free us all from this silly game.


Steve Wilcox on 9/18/2015 2:46:52 PM
I seems as though the FED based this recent decision on the worlds central banks and economy and not ours; this is outside of the mandate of our FED.

Andrew on 9/18/2015 5:39:15 PM
Obviously Obama made the decision. To raise rates would say the socialism doesn't work. He is such an ass.

John Gedney on 9/18/2015 6:50:59 PM
 

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