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Afternoon Note

Finishing Up

By Dominique Paul, Research Analyst
7/17/2015 1:38 PM

On a day when the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 are trending lower, the NASDAQ is breaking out to new all-time highs. Today’s intraday high for the NASDAQ is 5198.73. From its bottom in November 2008, the NASDAQ has gained a whopping 252%. Today’s growth is being attributed to Google which released a phenomenal earnings report yesterday afternoon, casting positive light on the technology sector. If able to maintain these gains into the close, the NASDAQ will close the week up approximately 3.6%. Despite the lows today, the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 will close the week up approximately 1.6% and 2.2%, respectively.

We had a series of economic releases this morning. The Bureau of Labor Statistics released its monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) report. For the month of June, total CPI rose 0.3% month-over-month following a 0.4% gain in May. This was supported by growth in gasoline, shelter, and food prices. On an annual basis, prices are up 0.1% in June after coming in unchanged at 0.0%. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, rose 0.2% after gaining 0.1% in the prior month. This was influenced by growth in the indexes for shelter, recreation, airline fares, and tobacco. Year-over-year, core CPI is up 1.8% which is close to the Federal Reserve 2% inflation target.

The Census Bureau released a strong housing report that should really be influencing the major equity indices. For the month of June, the seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) for building permits rose 7.4% from May to 1,343,000. Permits for single family homes rose 0.9% to a SAAR of 687,000. Housing starts for privately-owned homes rose at a SAAR of 1,174,000, which is up 9.8% from May’s SAAR of 1,069,000. Similar to permits, housing starts for single-family homes rose to 685,000. Regionally broken down, the Northeast saw the largest amount of starts, +35.5%, while the South and the West saw starts rise 10.4% and 13.5%, respectively. This report compliments the National Association of Home Builders’ (NAHB) housing market index (HMI) which saw strong demand for single family homes.

Lastly, Michigan University released its preliminary July reading on consumer sentiment. Consumer sentiment faded slightly during the month, down three points to 93.3 from the 96.1 June final reading. Consumer activity has appeared to decrease, which makes sense looking at the slump in revolving credit growth. The current conditions and expectations components decreased to 106.0 and 85.2, respectively.


Comments
At current prices, folks are not purchasing homes, with a 20% DP and even a $15 per hour job. Folks who are paying 3% down are common borrower, and believe they have a great deal. The way the current tax laws are favorable to homeowners, to a degree. What most folks forget is the bottom line: The higher the interest rate, the lower the price of RE, and the tangible write off for the borrower is better, in the big picture, as she purchased the property for less money, and borrowed at a higher interest rate.

No brainer! Lower price, higher interest, smaller DP, less PMI, probable lower tax multiple number, etc. I can afford to wait.

Y'all go ahead, and pay full balloon price.

I saw this bubble happen in Key West, FL, when my female sibling had purchased a SFR for 325k ballpark, and it ballooned to a somehow CONceived value of 800k plus. Based on what?

Hello? Her carpenter friend did some modifications, and she and I did all of the cosmetic work. Nothing fancy, and supplies were from the keys area home improvement shops.

When she was crowing about how her home was worth almost 900k, I told her to hit the Sell button, and she didn't.

She did sell at a profit, a few years later, at maybe $425k. Trees that grow to the sky become weeping willows.

Let's review those auto sales numbers--are you kidding me? Who buys a ride with a seven (7) year loan and pays both liability and comprehensive insurance on it, and may have money left over after paying their student loan obligations, and daily living expenses? After covering Obamacare MANdated insurance, rent, food, student loans, auto payment and insurance, child care expenses, etc. Who are those who have saved up 20% down payment and the ten to tens of thousands of dollars in closings costs?

Most folks in my hood have been here for decades, and their adult children visit on the weekends, as they can't afford to buy in the 'hood they grew up in.

Paula Marie Rose on 7/17/2015 11:01:39 PM
 

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