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Morning Commentary

Goodbye Greece

By Charles Payne, CEO & Principal Analyst
7/6/2015 6:31 AM

They did it! It’s the antithesis of logic; perhaps it’s a winning strategy. However, in a matter of hours, the people of Greece will know about medical shortages, food shortages, and empty ATM machines. For now, they just know a form of national pride that is awkward in the sense where it seems completely misplaced. The country borrowed billions to live a life of comfort and contentment and now they simply don’t want to repay.

I never thought it would come to this, but maybe it is a great test. The markets will be hammered this morning for sure. Nonetheless, it is the kind of shakeout markets need from time to time.

Today’s Session

Despite the “No” vote, there is hope a deal will be reached which I agree with as the pain mounts and food and medicine becomes less available. In fact, I suspect one reason stocks rebounded a little from the worst pre-opening downside is the resignation of Varoufakis – the belligerent Greek finance minister. Still, this is uncharted territory and the markets will react the way they do when there is a large cloud of uncertainty.

In the meantime, keep an eye on China where officials are trying to put the brakes on a sell off that’s loped $3 trillion in market value in three weeks.

Could Greece and China be an updated version of Lehman and Bear Stearns? I don’t think so, but over the last few weeks we raised cash and we’ll proceed with caution. By the same token, big dips have been amazing money-making opportunities.


Comments
Should the Greeks pull their heads out of their collective cavities and realize that they can barter among themselves for what they need, rather than crawl to the bank, and that their Govt is their problem thanks to promises that couldn't possibly be kept, then there might be hope. I doubt it though. The urge to rob the other guy's ATM is too strongly entrenched.

Steve on 7/6/2015 10:32:40 AM
Greece wants to follow the Argentina Model. Let the government print billions of Drachma that are barely worth the paper they are printed on. People get their pensions and government paid salaries whos purchasing powers decline steadily until a loaf of bread costs 10,000 drachma, a days wages. This is the government "death spiral."
Back in the USA, our president wants to impose the european nanny state model here. If successful, twenty years from now, the US government will be printing trillions of dollars to pay Social Security and Medicare benefits and USA will be in that "death spiral."



Chris Reinhardt on 7/6/2015 10:38:00 AM
We must ask ourselves----is this the future of the US??

Dick S on 7/6/2015 11:24:53 AM
Lest we think were so high and mighty, aren't we borrowing trillions to live a life of comfort and contentment?

SK on 7/6/2015 11:38:38 AM
Disappointed with your TV coverage all of which seems to be condemning Greece. So should all lenders layoff their underwriting departments since apparently lending money to people or governments with no hope of repaying the money is ok? Maybe all lenders should just give away loans to anyone for any amount - and have 75% of income and 100% of assets as collateral. Anything that still isn't paid back is backed by the government. Seems to me a 30% haircut on Greece's loans is very reasonable. Isn't Germany the only EU country that has grown their GDP since the formation of the Euro...?

Bill D on 7/6/2015 11:41:02 AM
Chris

Very well put!!!!!

FMT on 7/6/2015 11:42:07 AM
To Bill D and Chris...."What?"

Ed H. on 7/6/2015 11:57:22 AM
In light of what is going on in that part of the world and Greece's proximity to Middle East, I say let Israel annex Greece...Greece is good in Math (so they say) and Israel is amazing at innovation...Happy Monday!

iris on 7/6/2015 12:11:12 PM
Isn't the Greek history and economic model the same foolishness that the Liberal Economists like Paul Krugman, et. al. are promoting almost daily in the media (like the NYT)???
They promote borrowing more and spending into the economy (especially for Union and Government jobs) to promote economic growth???
It doesn't make sense to me.


A.H. on 7/6/2015 2:43:34 PM
Charles, I'm surprised and your being surprised.

E.V. Wagoner on 7/6/2015 2:53:40 PM
 

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